Trade Secrets
Trade Secrets Pro: Cliffhanger
We are doing Sunday as part one of the weekend update because of the holiday. I’ll have part 2 Monday evening. So I looked at the charts and observed a massive reversal candle.
Jack of All Trades
Diversification strategies validated: Coinbase (12 products >$100M, Everything Exchange) sustaining EBITDA through crypto winter, Airbnb (Reserve Now Pay Later, FIFA supply engine) reaccelerating GBV to +16%, CBRE (data centers 14% EBITDA, $2B target) offsetting CRE cyclicality
Jack of All Trades
Crypto, travel, and commercial real estate diverged: Coinbase missed (revenue -21.6% crypto winter) but resilient +0.6% on FCF $3.07B, Airbnb surged +7% on GBV +16% 2-yr high (Reserve Now Pay Later catalyst), CBRE beat on data centers (14% EBITDA, $2B 2026 target)—execution trumped cyclicality
US stock futures held Friday morning, attempting to stabilize after a broad market selloff, as investors prepared for a highly-anticipated inflation update due before the opening bell.
Trade wars are often treated as temporary disruptions—policy disagreements that escalate, peak, and eventually resolve through negotiation. This interpretation misunderstands the nature of economic competition between states.
January kicked off on a strong note with the total digital asset market cap reaching ~$3.4T as BTC rallied to $97K. However, momentum faded mid-month as geopolitical developments, including the pursuit of Greenland and renewed tariff uncertainty with European nations weighed on risk assets
By the end of January 2026, the global economy appears stable on the surface but increasingly divergent underneath. Global growth remains near trend, supported by technology-driven capital expenditure, resilient U.S. demand, and strong momentum across India and parts of Southeast Asia.
Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella announced the “world’s most powerful AI datacenter” Fairwater on his Linkedin post in September 2025 dripped with techno-triumphalism, LinkedIn erupted in applause, but I didn’t.
Bob Dylan's song "The Times They Are A-Changin'" became an anthem for change and a commentary on the social upheavals of the 1960s. However, its message is timeless and can be applied to various periods of economic uncertainty, including those characterized by stagflation.
In late 2024, Michael Saylor, doubled down on his Bitcoin vision with an audacious plan. Saylor's strategy involved raising billions through convertible debt to purchase more Bitcoin. This bold move was met with excitement by many, but I saw the cracks in the strategy
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