South America can unlock 2.1M bpd of oil output if prices top $100
A sustained $100-per-barrel oil price could trigger a significant increase in South American crude supply, potentially unlocking up to 2.1 million barrels per day (bpd) of additional output by the mid-2030s, according to a Rystad Energy analysis. The effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz has necessitated a significant upward adjustment in Rystad’s average forecasted 2026 oil price, which has jumped from $60 Brent per barrel in January to $89 per barrel on Tuesday. The finding underscores the essential contribution of hydrocarbons to public finance across South America, from Brasilia to Caracas. At current production levels, this price increase is projected to boost government revenues in the region by approximately $43 billion this year, compared to our initial base case,...
