Jan 26 was the industrial setup before the tech storm. Nucor guided Q1 higher across all segments, WRB walked away from property cat down 19%, STLD hit aluminum EBITDA+ in December. Industrial resilience is real, but margins compress for those lacking pricing power
For most of modern economic history, currency functioned as the universal mediator of exchange. Price determined allocation. Those who could pay gained access; those who could not were excluded.
Wednesday's Mag 7 trio revealed Wall Street's new AI calculus: META +10% on proving monetization despite $125B capex. MSFT -10% erasing $357B on Azure deceleration despite beat. TSLA +2% on Energy strength + Optimus bet. ROI proof required immediately. Potential no longer valued
META proved AI monetization (Q4 +24% revenue, $125B 2026 capex, +10% stock). MSFT showed AI cost without return (Azure 39% decel from 40%, $37.5B capex, -10% stock erasing $357B). TSLA ended Model S/X, pivots to Optimus robots. AI proof > AI potential. Deceleration = death
Tuesday's three took the pain today for easier comps tomorrow. GM abandoned EV targets, UNH absorbed cyberattack/Medicare cuts, TXN harvesting 300mm investment. Markets rewarded honesty: GM +9%, TXN +10%, UNH flat. Lowering bars telegraphs beats. Capital discipline over growth-at-any-cost.
