Jack of All Trades

Carnival —investment-grade leverage achieved (debt reduced $10B+ from peak, Fitch BBB- rating), dividend reinstated after 5+ years ($0.15 quarterly), record profitability ($3.1B FY2025 net income, +60% YoY), resilient demand (2/3 of FY2026 booked at record prices), and margin expansion (+250bp)

Carnival surged 9.4% premarket after crushing Q4 earnings ($0.34 vs $0.25 est, +36% beat), announcing dividend reinstatement ($0.15 quarterly) and achieving investment-grade leverage (3.4x net debt-to-EBITDA)—full-year net income $3.1B (all-time high, +60% YoY)

FedEx Buy on transformation validation (Network 2.0 driving +47% Express operating income, guidance raised, B2B strength 66% of revenue); Nike Hold on China catastrophe (-17%) and margin compression (-300bp) overwhelming North America recovery (+9%)

Dec 18 saw divergent outcomes: FedEx beat by 18% (adjusted EPS $4.82 vs $4.07 est), raised guidance despite $175M MD-11 grounding costs, stock +1.7%; Nike beat by 43% (EPS $0.53 vs $0.38 est) but China revenue collapsed 17%, Converse fell 30%, gross margin down 300bp on tariffs

Micron Buy on validated AI memory supercycle (Q1 revenue +57% YoY to $13.64B, EPS +167%), extraordinary margin expansion (56.8% gross margin targeting 68% Q2), and multi-year HBM demand visibility (entire 2026 supply sold, $100B TAM by 2028 vs $35B in 2025)—valuation stretched

Micron surged 7.5% Friday after Wednesday's blockbuster Q1 FY2026 beat—revenue $13.64B (+57% YoY, +6% vs est), non-GAAP EPS $4.78 (+167% YoY, +21% vs est), gross margin 56.8% (+1100bp QoQ)—then demolished with Q2 guidance of $18.7B revenue (+31% vs $14.35B est) and 68% gross margin

Lennar Sell reflects margin death spiral (17.0% Q4 worsening to 15-16% Q1 guide, down from 22%+ historical) as 6.2% mortgage rates and affordability crisis force 14% revenue spent on incentives, ASP down 10% to $386k, creating 50%+ earnings collapse despite volume growth

Dec 16 saw Lennar collapse after Q4 beat revenue but missed earnings (adjusted EPS $2.03 vs $2.21-2.24, -12.6%, -50% YoY) on margin compression (17.0%, -510bp YoY); Q1 guidance of 15-16% margins and $365-375k ASP (down 10%+) triggered multiple Wall Street downgrades to Underperform/$90-95 targets

Dec 11 saw Broadcom collapse 11.4% despite beating estimates (revenue $18B +28%, EPS $1.95 +13% beat) on margin compression fears—CFO guided 100bp gross margin decline (77.9% to 76.9%) as AI chips (lower margin) displace software, triggering $60B market cap loss

Dec 11 saw Broadcom collapse 11.4% despite beating estimates (revenue $18B +28%, EPS $1.95 +13% beat) on margin compression fears—CFO guided 100bp gross margin decline (77.9% to 76.9%) as AI chips (lower margin) displace software, triggering $60B market cap loss