Jack of All Trades

Eli Lilly posted the single most impressive earnings report of Feb 2-6 week, crushing Q4 estimates (revenue +43%, EPS +13% beat) and delivering guidance that exceeded Street expectations by +7% ($80-83B vs $77.6B for 2026).

February 3 after-hours delivered a paradox: spectacular Q4 results met with stock selloffs on cautious forward guidance. AMD crushed Q4 with revenue $10.27B (+34% YoY, beat $9.76B est) and EPS $1.53 (beat $1.32 by 16%), but Q1 2026 guidance $9.8B ±$300M disappointed vs $9.38B Street expectations

February 3 after-hours delivered a paradox: spectacular Q4 results met with stock selloffs on cautious forward guidance. AMD crushed Q4 with revenue $10.27B (+34% YoY, beat $9.76B est) and EPS $1.53 (beat $1.32 by 16%), but Q1 2026 guidance $9.8B ±$300M disappointed vs $9.38B Street expectations

February 2, 2026 marked a decisive turning point in Q4 2025 earnings season. Companies that proved AI monetization TODAY crushed estimates and rallied double-digits. Those showing weakness, sequential declines, or lack of AI inflection sold off despite beats.

February 2, 2026 marked a decisive turning point in Q4 2025 earnings season. Companies that proved AI monetization TODAY crushed estimates and rallied double-digits. Those showing weakness, sequential declines, or lack of AI inflection sold off despite beats.

Friday bifurcation: Premium consumers strong (MA cross-border +14%, SBUX comps +4% first growth 8 qtrs). Value-Added Services boom (MA VAS +23%, SBUX Rewards 35.5M). Commodities compress (energy earnings -20-30% on oil -15%). Economy splits: experiences/services premium vs goods deflation

Bifurcation. MA crushed Q4 (revenue $8.8B +18%, cross-border +14%, VAS +23%) +2%. SBUX mixed (comps +4% first in 8 qtrs but margin -180bp, EPS guide low) +5%. XOM/CVX narrowest profits since 2021 (oil -15%) but cost discipline +2-4%. Premium consumers thrive, commodities compress.

Thursday's duo: AAPL proved iPhone supercycle real ($85.3B record) but supply constraints + memory inflation = -1.9%. IBM proved enterprise AI scales ($12.5B GenAI doubled, FCF $14.7B) = +8%. Consumer hardware margin pressure vs B2B software margin expansion. 2026 bar is perfection

AAPL crushed Q1 FY26 (revenue $143.8B +16%, iPhone $85.3B +23%, China +38%) yet -1.9% on margin fears. IBM validated AI transformation (Q4 +12%, GenAI book $12.5B doubled, FCF $14.7B decade high) +8%. Hardware scales but costs compress. Enterprise AI monetizes. Beats insufficient.

Wednesday's Mag 7 trio revealed Wall Street's new AI calculus: META +10% on proving monetization despite $125B capex. MSFT -10% erasing $357B on Azure deceleration despite beat. TSLA +2% on Energy strength + Optimus bet. ROI proof required immediately. Potential no longer valued