Jack of All Trades

The $650B AI capex question emerged as Alphabet/Amazon posted strong results but fell on guidance: Google Cloud +48% ignored amid $185B capex shock, AWS deceleration despite "monetizing capacity as fast as we can," markets demanding ROI proof not spending promises

Eli Lilly posted the single most impressive earnings report of Feb 2-6 week, crushing Q4 estimates (revenue +43%, EPS +13% beat) and delivering guidance that exceeded Street expectations by +7% ($80-83B vs $77.6B for 2026).

Eli Lilly posted the single most impressive earnings report of Feb 2-6 week, crushing Q4 estimates (revenue +43%, EPS +13% beat) and delivering guidance that exceeded Street expectations by +7% ($80-83B vs $77.6B for 2026).

February 3 after-hours delivered a paradox: spectacular Q4 results met with stock selloffs on cautious forward guidance. AMD crushed Q4 with revenue $10.27B (+34% YoY, beat $9.76B est) and EPS $1.53 (beat $1.32 by 16%), but Q1 2026 guidance $9.8B ±$300M disappointed vs $9.38B Street expectations

February 3 after-hours delivered a paradox: spectacular Q4 results met with stock selloffs on cautious forward guidance. AMD crushed Q4 with revenue $10.27B (+34% YoY, beat $9.76B est) and EPS $1.53 (beat $1.32 by 16%), but Q1 2026 guidance $9.8B ±$300M disappointed vs $9.38B Street expectations

February 2, 2026 marked a decisive turning point in Q4 2025 earnings season. Companies that proved AI monetization TODAY crushed estimates and rallied double-digits. Those showing weakness, sequential declines, or lack of AI inflection sold off despite beats.

February 2, 2026 marked a decisive turning point in Q4 2025 earnings season. Companies that proved AI monetization TODAY crushed estimates and rallied double-digits. Those showing weakness, sequential declines, or lack of AI inflection sold off despite beats.

Friday bifurcation: Premium consumers strong (MA cross-border +14%, SBUX comps +4% first growth 8 qtrs). Value-Added Services boom (MA VAS +23%, SBUX Rewards 35.5M). Commodities compress (energy earnings -20-30% on oil -15%). Economy splits: experiences/services premium vs goods deflation

Bifurcation. MA crushed Q4 (revenue $8.8B +18%, cross-border +14%, VAS +23%) +2%. SBUX mixed (comps +4% first in 8 qtrs but margin -180bp, EPS guide low) +5%. XOM/CVX narrowest profits since 2021 (oil -15%) but cost discipline +2-4%. Premium consumers thrive, commodities compress.

Thursday's duo: AAPL proved iPhone supercycle real ($85.3B record) but supply constraints + memory inflation = -1.9%. IBM proved enterprise AI scales ($12.5B GenAI doubled, FCF $14.7B) = +8%. Consumer hardware margin pressure vs B2B software margin expansion. 2026 bar is perfection