Jack of All Trades

Dec 18 saw divergent outcomes: FedEx beat by 18% (adjusted EPS $4.82 vs $4.07 est), raised guidance despite $175M MD-11 grounding costs, stock +1.7%; Nike beat by 43% (EPS $0.53 vs $0.38 est) but China revenue collapsed 17%, Converse fell 30%, gross margin down 300bp on tariffs

Micron Buy on validated AI memory supercycle (Q1 revenue +57% YoY to $13.64B, EPS +167%), extraordinary margin expansion (56.8% gross margin targeting 68% Q2), and multi-year HBM demand visibility (entire 2026 supply sold, $100B TAM by 2028 vs $35B in 2025)—valuation stretched

Micron surged 7.5% Friday after Wednesday's blockbuster Q1 FY2026 beat—revenue $13.64B (+57% YoY, +6% vs est), non-GAAP EPS $4.78 (+167% YoY, +21% vs est), gross margin 56.8% (+1100bp QoQ)—then demolished with Q2 guidance of $18.7B revenue (+31% vs $14.35B est) and 68% gross margin

Lennar Sell reflects margin death spiral (17.0% Q4 worsening to 15-16% Q1 guide, down from 22%+ historical) as 6.2% mortgage rates and affordability crisis force 14% revenue spent on incentives, ASP down 10% to $386k, creating 50%+ earnings collapse despite volume growth

Dec 16 saw Lennar collapse after Q4 beat revenue but missed earnings (adjusted EPS $2.03 vs $2.21-2.24, -12.6%, -50% YoY) on margin compression (17.0%, -510bp YoY); Q1 guidance of 15-16% margins and $365-375k ASP (down 10%+) triggered multiple Wall Street downgrades to Underperform/$90-95 targets

Dec 11 saw Broadcom collapse 11.4% despite beating estimates (revenue $18B +28%, EPS $1.95 +13% beat) on margin compression fears—CFO guided 100bp gross margin decline (77.9% to 76.9%) as AI chips (lower margin) displace software, triggering $60B market cap loss

Dec 11 saw Broadcom collapse 11.4% despite beating estimates (revenue $18B +28%, EPS $1.95 +13% beat) on margin compression fears—CFO guided 100bp gross margin decline (77.9% to 76.9%) as AI chips (lower margin) displace software, triggering $60B market cap loss

Oracle Sell reflects catastrophic capital intensity shock ($50B capex, $248B leases, negative $10B FCF) and unsustainable debt ($124B, CDS at 2009 levels) overwhelming $523B RPO growth—OpenAI concentration ($300B+ single customer) plus margin compression (77% to 49%).

Dec 10 dominated by Oracle's AI infrastructure reckoning—stock plunged 11% on $16.1B revenue (+14%, missed estimates), $523B RPO (+438% YoY), but shocking $50B FY2026 capex (raised from $35B), negative $10B FCF, and $248B lease commitments as debt hit $124B triggering existential AI bubble concerns

GameStop tumbled 6.5% after-hours on massive revenue miss ($821M vs $987M est, -16.6%) despite EPS beat and net income surge (+343% to $77.1M)—$8.8B cash including $519M Bitcoin ($9.2M Q3 loss) raises capital allocation questions as physical retail declines accelerate without clear growth strategy