Trade Secrets: Dailies 06.15.2026

US Stocks surge at the open of a holiday-shortened week as the US-Iran peace deal — announced Sunday night — triggers the most significant risk-on move of 2026, sending futures sharply higher, oil tumbling, and bond yields retreating, even as the formal signing ceremony is not scheduled until Friday in Switzerland.

President Trump announced late Sunday on Truth Social that the deal with Iran is "now complete," fully authorizing the toll-free reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and lifting the U.S. naval blockade immediately. Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, the key mediator, confirmed both sides have declared "the immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts, including in Lebanon." The formal signing ceremony is set for June 19 in Switzerland, with Vice President Vance and possibly Trump attending.
S&P 500 futures surged 1.3% at 7:45 a.m. in New York, with Nasdaq-100 and Dow Jones futures both sharply higher as traders priced in the end of the 108-day conflict that has disrupted roughly 20% of global oil shipments and been the dominant driver of inflation since late February. Markets are closed Friday in observance of the Juneteenth holiday, making this a four-day trading week.
SpaceX (SPCX) continued its post-IPO momentum, rising 5–6% in premarket to around $170. The stock closed at $160.95 on its Nasdaq debut Friday — up 19.2% from its $135 IPO price in the largest public offering in history at a $75 billion raise — and is adding to those gains on the Iran deal news. NewStreet Research initiated coverage with a $165 price target. The stock's $2 trillion-plus market cap now ranks it among the top 10 U.S.-listed companies, above Tesla.
Tripadvisor (TRIP) jumped 12% in premarket after American Express said it will acquire restaurant booking platform TheFork from the online travel company in an all-cash deal worth $700 million.
Oil prices tumbled on the deal. Brent crude fell roughly 4–5% in early trade to around $83 per barrel — back to levels last seen in early March, before the conflict began — while WTI fell 4.8%. Brent has now declined more than 20% from its 2026 peak and posted its worst monthly performance in May since the Covid-19 pandemic. Analysts caution that even with the Hormuz deal in place, full normalization of physical supply flows will take six to eight months, as mines must be cleared, idled production fields restarted, and damaged Gulf infrastructure repaired.
Gold climbed 2.81% to $4,357.70 an ounce, as lower bond yields and dollar weakness offset some of the risk-on rotation, while silver surged 4.16% to $70.81. The dollar fell broadly in Asia trade as Treasury yields pulled back on reduced rate hike expectations now that the primary driver of the 2026 inflation spike — energy costs tied to the war — appears to be resolving.
The week's dominant macro focus now shifts to the Federal Reserve. Kevin Warsh chairs his first FOMC meeting Wednesday, June 17, with the rate expected to hold at 3.50%–3.75%. Markets will be watching closely for any signal that the dot plot is being scrapped and whether Warsh signals the rate hike scenario — which had been priced at a 55% probability entering the week — is now off the table given the peace deal's deflationary implications for energy. May CPI data also prints Wednesday morning, with April's reading having come in at 4.2% year-over-year, the highest since April 2023.
Israel is not a party to the Iran deal and its government has expressed significant reservations about the terms, particularly around Iran's nuclear program. Netanyahu said both Israel and the U.S. remain in "full agreement" that Iran must not obtain nuclear weapons. The deal's current form leaves the nuclear issue for further negotiations, which Israel views as a deep disappointment. A deadly Israeli strike on Beirut's suburbs on Sunday morning prompted Trump to condemn it publicly hours before announcing the deal, adding a layer of tension.
Asian markets surged on Monday. Japan's Nikkei 225 rose 4.99% to close at a record 69,317.50, breaching the 69,000 level for the first time, led by semiconductor and energy-import-sensitive stocks. The Bank of Japan is now expected to hike rates at its June 15–16 meeting — with probability approaching 100% — as the peace deal reduces imported inflation pressures and gives policymakers room to normalize policy.
South Korea's KOSPI climbed 5%, extending its extraordinary run. The index gained nearly 31% in May alone — its best monthly performance since January 1998 — driven by AI semiconductor names. Circuit breakers were briefly triggered on the upside as the morning session opened.
Hong Kong's Hang Seng rose 1.2% to 25,833, while China's Shanghai Composite gained 1.2%. Australia's S&P/ASX 200 advanced broadly. India's Nifty 50 was up 0.8% in early trade and Singapore's Straits Times Index gained 0.6%.

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