US Stocks point to a mixed open as Wall Street braces for the Fed's most consequential meeting in years, with new Chairman Kevin Warsh set to deliver his first policy decision and press conference amid a sharply hawkish shift in rate expectations. * Stock futures are signaling a mixed open ahead of this afternoon's policy announcement from the Federal Reserve, with futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average marginally lower while premarket gains in several tech stocks have S&P 500 futures trading up 0.2% and Nasdaq-100 futures up 0.6%. * The Federal Open Market Committee will release its updated policy statement at 2:00 p.m. ET, with Fed Chair Kevin Warsh holding his first post-meeting press conference as head of the central bank at 2:30 p.m. ET. CME FedWatch data put the odds of a hold at roughly 97% as of June 13, leaving the target range expected to stay at 3.50%–3.75% for a fourth straight meeting. * The rate decision itself is considered a formality; what matters is the language around it. The prior dot plot from March showed the median FOMC projection pointing to two rate cuts in 2026 — a path widely expected to be discarded today, with traders now pricing roughly 60% odds of at least one hike before year-end per CME FedWatch, a dramatic reversal from where expectations stood at the start of the year. * Warsh's debut press conference carries unusual weight. Analysts note he could remove the Fed's prior "easing bias" language from the statement and may decline to submit a personal dot to the projections altogether, a move Wolfe Research says would be consistent with his promise to deliver "regime change" at the central bank in ways beyond a single rate move. * The macro backdrop heading into the decision: April's CPI print came in at 4.2% year-over-year, the highest since 2023, driven by energy costs tied to the Iran war. With Sunday's U.S.-Iran peace deal now suggesting that energy-driven inflation pressure may begin easing, some economists argue the Fed could use this meeting to pivot away from its prior cut bias without committing to a hike, given labor market data has also improved somewhat in recent weeks. * Retail sales data for May, along with PPI, are scheduled for release this morning ahead of the Fed decision, giving markets a fresh read on consumer and wholesale price trends in the hours before Warsh speaks. * Stocks closed mixed on Tuesday as investors positioned ahead of the meeting. The Dow rallied to within a hair of the 52,000 level, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite pared back some of their recent record-setting gains, reflecting some caution ahead of the policy announcement. * SpaceX (SPCX) remains a focal point in early trading, continuing its post-IPO and post-Cursor-acquisition rally as investors assess how the AI coding deal positions the company against rivals OpenAI and Anthropic. * Oil prices continue to factor into the inflation calculus. Crude has fallen sharply since the Iran peace deal was announced Sunday, providing a tailwind for the disinflation narrative that some Fed officials may cite today, even as others remain wary given how recently the energy shock was driving price pressures. * Markets are bracing for potential volatility around the 2:00 p.m. statement and the 2:30 p.m. press conference, with analysts at Schwab noting that absent a geopolitical surprise, major indexes may trade in a tight range through midday before the real action begins this afternoon.
Trade Secrets: Dailies 06.17.2026
US Stocks point to a mixed open as Wall Street braces for the Fed's most consequential meeting in years, with new Chairman Kevin Warsh set to deliver his first policy decision
