US Stocks point higher in premarket as the formally signed US-Iran peace deal overrides a hawkish Fed hangover, with oil sliding to three-month lows and Asian markets hitting fresh records overnight even as Wall Street closed sharply lower on Wednesday's rate-path surprise. * The Federal Reserve held rates steady at 3.50%–3.75% in Kevin Warsh's first meeting as chair, but delivered a hawkish dot plot that rattled markets. The median fed funds projection for year-end rose to 3.8% from 3.4% in March, with nine of 18 officials now penciling in at least one rate hike in 2026 — six of those seeing multiple hikes. The Fed also raised its year-end inflation outlook to 3.6% headline PCE and 3.3% core. Warsh abstained from submitting his own dot, complicating the read on where he personally stands. * The Dow fell 507.12 points, or 0.98%, to 51,492.55 on Wednesday despite touching a fresh intraday record earlier in the session — its third straight all-time high before the afternoon reversal. The S&P 500 dropped 1.21% to 7,420.10 and the Nasdaq lost 1.34% to 26,021.66, with mega-cap tech leading declines as Microsoft, Meta, Alphabet, and Amazon all closed in the red. The 2-year Treasury yield surged 16 basis points to 4.22%. * Stock futures are climbing back this morning regardless, with traders looking past the Fed's hawkish signal toward the formal signing of the US-Iran agreement. The U.S. and Iran electronically signed a 14-point Memorandum of Understanding overnight, extending the ceasefire and establishing a 60-day negotiation framework — extendable — toward a broader settlement. Under the deal, the U.S. will lift its naval blockade and restore pre-war military deployments within 30 days, while Iran will reopen the Strait of Hormuz to commercial shipping without transit fees, and a reported $300 billion in financing has been outlined to help rebuild Iran. * Oil tumbled hard on the signing news. Brent crude fell 2.3% to $77.70 a barrel, a three-month low, while WTI dropped 2.7% to $74.70. The drop adds to a string of declines since Sunday's initial deal announcement and removes a major piece of the inflation puzzle the Fed had been wrestling with at its meeting just a day earlier. * Intel (INTC) jumped 9% in premarket after President Trump announced the chipmaker agreed to a partnership with Apple to design and build chips domestically, calling out "stupid presidents" for letting Taiwan capture semiconductor manufacturing. Intel shares have climbed more than 400% since the U.S. government's $8.9 billion investment in the company last August. Fellow chip names Nvidia and Micron also gained in sympathy, up 1.2% and 4.7% respectively, with the iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) jumping 3.9%. * SpaceX (SPCX) continued to draw scrutiny after its post-IPO surge cooled, falling from roughly $225 back to around $206 as a former Nasdaq chief publicly warned the stock isn't trading on fundamentals. The company remains in focus following Tuesday's $60 billion Cursor acquisition announcement. * Trump struck a notably less conciliatory tone on the Iran deal at the G7 summit in Evian-les-Bains, France, telling reporters Wednesday the agreement is "not final" — calling it a memorandum of understanding only — and warning the U.S. would "go right back to dropping bombs" if Iran doesn't comply with the terms. * Asian markets surged to fresh records overnight on the dual catalyst of the signed Iran deal and falling oil, even as they also digest the Fed's hawkish shift. Japan's Nikkei 225 crossed above 71,000 for the first time in its history, extending a five-session winning streak and now up nearly 40% year-to-date, with chip and machinery names leading. * South Korea's KOSPI touched a record high of 9,000.68 intraday. SK Hynix jumped roughly 5% after shipping samples of its next-generation HBM4E AI memory chip to major customers including Nvidia, while Samsung Electronics added around 1.2%. Taiwan's TAIEX also hit an intraday high near 46,565.70. * Australia's S&P/ASX 200 fell 0.5%, lagging the regional rally, while Singapore's Straits Times Index added 0.2%. Futures tied to India's Nifty 50 rose 0.6% as falling oil prices boosted optimism over India's import-cost outlook. China's SSE Composite was edging lower at the open, a laggard against the broader Asian record-setting mood.
Trade Secrets: Dailies 06.18.2026
US Stocks point higher in premarket as the formally signed US-Iran peace deal overrides a hawkish Fed hangover, with oil sliding to three-month lows and Asian markets hitting fresh records overnight
