Trade Secrets: Dailies 07.14.2026

US Stocks open to a split tape as blockbuster bank earnings collide with an IBM revenue disaster and the most consequential data day of the summer — June CPI at 8:30 a.m. ET followed by Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's first congressional testimony at 10:00 a.m. ET — with oil above $80 and rate hike odds climbing to 43% for July 29.

S&P 500 futures fell 0.2% and Dow Jones futures dropped 0.69% in premarket, while Nasdaq 100 futures bucked the trend and rose 0.49% as AI-linked names attempted to recover from Monday's selloff. At 8:00 a.m. ET, S&P 500 contracts remained down 0.2% with Nasdaq 100 up 0.6%, reflecting a market struggling for direction ahead of the day's two marquee events.
June CPI prints at 8:30 a.m. ET and is expected to show headline inflation eased in June following acceleration between March and May. A softer reading would offer some relief but may do little to reassure markets given that Middle East tensions and the reimposed Iranian blockade are already threatening to reverse any near-term energy price declines. Bloomberg reported US stocks rose Tuesday after the data showed consumer prices declining, taking some pressure off the Fed.
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh delivers the central bank's semi-annual Monetary Policy Report to Congress at 10:00 a.m. ET — his first appearance before lawmakers as chair. Fed Governor Christopher Waller rattled markets Monday by warning the Fed may need to raise rates "in the near term" if inflation remains well above 2%. CME FedWatch now shows a 43% probability of a quarter-point rate hike at the July 29 FOMC meeting, up sharply from 34% a day earlier.
JPMorgan Chase (JPM) delivered a blowout Q2, reporting $16.9 billion in net profit with EPS of $6.14 — beating the $5.59 consensus — as revenue in every line of business hit record levels. Equity markets revenue surged 86% and the overall markets division grew 35%, benefiting directly from Iran war volatility. Shares climbed 2.8%. Wells Fargo (WFC) reported Q2 revenue of $22.62 billion against the $21.8 billion estimate, with net income of $6.4 billion or $2.00 per share and average total deposits of $1.47 trillion beating the $1.44 billion expected. Goldman Sachs (GS) gained 7.4–7.95% on its own strong beat. Citigroup (C) and Bank of America (BAC) also reported Tuesday morning.
IBM (IBM) cratered 20–25% in premarket — its worst single-day drop since 1987 — after pre-announcing a Q2 revenue miss, reporting adjusted EPS of $2.93 on revenue of $17.2 billion against consensus of $3.01 EPS and $17.86 billion revenue. CEO Arvind Krishna attributed the shortfall to weakness in software and infrastructure businesses, with the z17 mainframe cycle creating a tough year-on-year comparison. CrowdStrike (CRWD) surged 9.4%, NetApp (NTAP) climbed 6%, and Goldman's 7.4% gain helped cushion the Dow against IBM's drag.
Memory stocks staged a partial recovery in premarket after Monday's brutal selloff. SK Hynix US-listed shares (SKHY) rose nearly 7%, SanDisk (SNDK) gained more than 4%, and Micron (MU), Western Digital (WDC), and Seagate (STX) all added more than 3%. Nvidia (NVDA) rose 1.3% in premarket. Apple (AAPL) slipped after hitting a 52-week high Monday on data showing it captured a record 20% global smartphone market share despite global industry shipments hitting a 13-year low.
Oil extended its surge. WTI crude rose 1.98% to $79.69 per barrel and Brent advanced 3.3% to $86.11 — both at four-week highs — after a third straight night of US military strikes on Iran and the formal reinstatement of the Iranian blockade. The US Navy's Combined Maritime Information Center confirmed a full maritime blockade of all Iranian ports and coastal areas takes effect at 20:00 GMT today. Gold slipped to around $4,029 per ounce after falling 2.6% Monday, its largest single-day decline since June 24. Bitcoin was last around $62,865. The US Dollar Index stood at 101.22.
South Korea's KOSPI opened down 2.47% to 6,639.09, extending Monday's 8.9% crash, as the index entered bear market territory with a drawdown exceeding 25% from its recent highs — though the index remains up approximately 62% year-to-date. SK Hynix fell 3.14% to 1,787,000 KRW in Seoul and Samsung Electronics slipped 1.08% to 252,000 KRW. The Kospi's South Korean president set a 5,000-point target last year, underscoring how far valuations have swung in both directions in 2026. South Korea's Upbit crypto exchange saw a 1,437% spike in 24-hour trading volume to $4.24 billion as retail investors rotated into digital assets.
Japan's Nikkei 225 opened down more than 700 points or 1.1%, briefly touching 66,000 before stabilizing around 66,500. Kioxia fell 5.05% and SoftBank dropped 5.06% at the open. The Nikkei is expected to be pressured by oil-driven inflation concerns and spillover from the global tech selloff. Australian ASX 200 futures fell 0.1%, implying an early loss of around 0.5%. China's Shanghai Composite slipped 0.8% as AI chip stocks led declines globally, even as export data showed AI-linked semiconductor shipments remain strong. India's BSE Sensex lost 524.12 points, or 0.68%, to close at 77,092.28, and the Nifty 50 dropped 145.20 points, or 0.60%, to 24,065.80. Goldman Sachs separately said the Nifty 50 could climb nearly 10% to 26,500 as India's investment outlook improves. Singapore's Q2 GDP grew 5.7% year-on-year, down from 6.3% in Q1, with manufacturing expanding 12.2%.

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