Trade Secrets: Dailies 07.15.2026

US Stocks push higher in a relief rally as cooler-than-expected June CPI slashes July Fed rate hike odds from 43% to 17%, ASML delivers a blowout earnings beat and guidance raise that reinvigorates the AI trade, and PayPal surges 20% on a $53 billion takeover offer — even as oil holds above $85 and Trump vows to intensify Iran strikes.

Dow Jones futures rose above the flatline, S&P 500 futures gained 0.2%, and Nasdaq-100 futures added 0.5% heading into Wednesday's open, building on Tuesday's gains. The S&P 500 closed Tuesday up 0.38% at 7,543.59, the Nasdaq Composite advanced 0.9% to 26,107.01, and the Dow added just 9.63 points to 52,508.27 as Goldman Sachs's 7.4–7.95% post-earnings surge kept the blue-chip index afloat despite IBM's drag.
Tuesday's June CPI came in at -0.4% month-over-month — the largest single-month decline since April 2020 — and core CPI, excluding food and energy, was flat versus expectations for a modest rise. Year-over-year CPI slowed to 3.5%, below forecasts. The soft reading sent the 2-year Treasury yield down 11 basis points to 4.19% from its 17-month high of nearly 4.3%, and slashed the probability of a July 29 rate hike to 17% from 43%. June PPI is due at 8:30 a.m. ET Wednesday and came in at a seasonally adjusted -0.3% — beating the consensus of no change — with core PPI up just 0.2% against expectations for 0.3%.
ASML (ASML) is the premarket catalyst, surging 3.4–3.6% after raising its full-year 2026 net sales forecast to €43–€45 billion (midpoint €44 billion) from the prior range of €36–€40 billion (midpoint €38 billion), and lifting its gross margin forecast to 54–56% from 51–53%. The Dutch chip equipment maker also announced plans to increase production capacity for chipmaking equipment by 30%, directly addressing supply chain bottleneck concerns. The raised guidance is the second upgrade of the year for ASML and was read as a strong endorsement of the AI capex cycle's durability.
PayPal Holdings (PYPL) surged nearly 20% in premarket after Reuters reported Stripe and Advent International have jointly offered to acquire the company at $60.50 per share, valuing PayPal at more than $53 billion. The proposed deal would give Stripe and Advent equal ownership stakes. BlackRock (BLK) rose 3.8–4.4% after beating Q2 profit estimates, with AUM hitting $15.34 trillion versus the $15.19 trillion estimate, up from $12.53 trillion a year earlier, driven by strong inflows and market appreciation. Morgan Stanley (MS) shares gained 1.6% in premarket ahead of its Q2 report. PNC Financial reported Q2 profit jumped 25% to $2.06 billion with revenue up 21% to $6.88 billion.
Pentair (PNR) tumbled 16.93–20.7% in premarket after slashing its Q2 and full-year 2026 guidance and announcing CFO Nicholas Brazis resigned. The water treatment company now sees 2026 sales down 4–7% versus prior guidance of up 2–4%, and cut its EPS outlook to $4.60–$4.80 from $5.30–$5.40, citing pool channel inventory destocking and IEEPA tariff refunds. Elevance Health (ELV) fell 7.2–8.3% despite beating Q2 estimates, as rising medical cost ratios spooked managed care investors. Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) fell 1.7–2% despite raising full-year guidance. IBM (IBM) recovered 1.19% after Tuesday's 25% single-day crash, its worst since 1987.
SpaceX (SPCX) gained 1.3% to $137.81 ahead of Starship's next critical test flight, scheduled no earlier than Thursday July 16 at 6:45 p.m. ET from Starbase, Texas. Micron Technology (MU) rebounded 4.9% and Nvidia (NVDA) climbed 4.1% in Tuesday's session, reversing Monday's sharp declines. Trump scrapped the proposed 20% Hormuz shipping fee but vowed to knock out "all of their bridges" unless Iran returns to the negotiating table, telling Fox News the US would intensify strikes. Brent crude held near $85.80 per barrel after gaining nearly 13% this week, while Iran's IRGC threatened to close "all other export corridors that benefit the US and its allies."
South Korea's KOSPI surged 6.98–7.1% to 7,343.37, its best day in weeks, as the cooler CPI reading dramatically eased Fed rate hike fears and triggered a buy-side sidecar program trading halt after KOSPI 200 futures met trigger conditions. SK Hynix jumped 9.4% to recover part of its 15% Monday crash, while Samsung Electronics surged 6.1% and Kioxia rose 5.79% to reclaim the 70,000 yen mark. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 2%, its best single day in a month, with South Korea reclaiming its spot as the top-performing major equity index globally in 2026 even after the recent correction.
Japan's Nikkei 225 rose 0.9–1.49% to close at 68,353.91–68,751.44, with Kioxia and Advantest reversing early losses as investors bought ahead of ASML and TSMC earnings. SoftBank pulled back 3.26% to 6,360 yen after an early spike. The dollar fell to 162.16 yen as Treasury yields declined and the dollar weakened broadly. Hong Kong's Hang Seng gained 1.6% to 24,721.10. China's Shanghai Composite fell 0.4% to 3,952.04 — a notable laggard — after China's Q2 GDP growth slowed sharply to 4.3% annualized from 5.0% in Q1, with Chinese retail sales rebounding modestly in June but falling short of expectations for a recovery in domestic demand. Australia's S&P/ASX 200 rose 0.2% to 8,830.00. The euro strengthened above $1.14 and the Australian dollar tested $0.70.

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