Trade Secrets: Dailies 07.21.2026

US Stocks push higher to start the week as ceasefire mediation hopes knock oil back from a one-month high, chip stocks stage their strongest rebound in weeks, and the most consequential earnings sprint of the summer — Alphabet, Tesla, and Nvidia — begins today with results that will determine whether the AI trade has legs after its worst two-week stretch of the year.

Dow Jones futures rose 219 points or 0.42% to 52,292, S&P 500 futures gained 0.49% to 7,521, and Nasdaq-100 futures surged 1.33% to 29,163 in premarket trading, reversing three straight sessions of declines that saw the Dow fall 307 points to 51,839.26 and the Nasdaq Composite slip 12.17 points to 25,508.07 on Monday. The S&P 500 closed Monday at 7,443.28, down 0.19%. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) bounced in Monday's session, providing early direction for today's tech recovery.
The week's central question is whether mega-cap tech earnings can restore confidence in the AI infrastructure trade. Alphabet (GOOGL) and Tesla (TSLA) both report after today's close, with investors closely scrutinizing Alphabet's AI capex trajectory — any commitment to sustained or increased spending on AI infrastructure will be read as a direct endorsement of the cycle that drove Nvidia, Micron, and SK Hynix to record highs earlier this year. Intel (INTC) reports Wednesday July 23, having guided for Q2 revenue of up to $14.8 billion with INTC testing double-bottom support near $94 following the semiconductor selloff.
Nvidia (NVDA) disclosed a 9.3% passive stake in AI cloud infrastructure company Nebius Group (NBIS), up from an 8.3% stake first revealed in March when Nvidia made a $2 billion investment in the company. The disclosure reinforced Nvidia's strategy of taking equity stakes in key AI infrastructure customers and ecosystem partners. TSMC separately is set to raise prices for both advanced and mature chip production services by up to 10% in 2027, Nikkei Asia reported Tuesday citing multiple sources — a signal of continued pricing power but also a potential margin headwind for chip customers.
Taiwan's June export orders surged 59.4% year-on-year to $95.26 billion — the 17th straight monthly gain and well above the 49.5% consensus — providing the most concrete real-time confirmation yet that AI hardware demand remains robust even as equity markets have been repricing chip stocks lower. The data was a key catalyst for the overnight Asian recovery.
On Iran, a 10-day ceasefire proposal is now on the table. A senior Iranian official confirmed to Reuters on Monday that Tehran received a framework from mediators — believed to be Qatar and Pakistan — for a 10-day pause intended to pave the way for a lasting agreement. Iran has now launched strikes on US military targets in Bahrain and Kuwait including air defense systems, widening the conflict to at least five countries. Meanwhile, Yemen's Houthi rebels announced Monday they would impose a naval blockade on Saudi Arabia's ports — threatening Riyadh's ability to route oil exports around the Strait of Hormuz — though MUFG's Michael Wan said it was "unlikely to be sustained given the lack of capability right now by the Houthis." Trump also signed new orders imposing 50% tariffs on a range of Canadian goods, citing discriminatory treatment of US alcohol, automobile, and dairy products.
Brent crude fell 0.74–0.8% to around $88.47–$88.56 per barrel in Asian trade after hitting a one-month high of $91.42 on Monday, as the ceasefire proposal eased some of the energy supply premium. WTI fell 0.6% to $82.71. Oil is still on track for its biggest weekly gain since April if prices hold near current levels. Steel Dynamics (STLD) reported Q2 EPS of $3.69 versus the $3.64 estimate on sales of $6.09 billion against the $5.56 billion estimate, saying it remains confident domestic steel and aluminum consumption will stay strong through 2027. Cracker Barrel (CBRL) rose 2.34% in premarket after completing a sale-leaseback deal for 26 store locations generating roughly $77 million in proceeds.
South Korea's KOSPI surged 3.6–4.7% to 6,821.41, snapping a four-session losing streak that included Monday's additional 4.5% decline — the index has now fallen more than 20% from its recent peak despite still being up more than 50% year-to-date. Samsung Electronics jumped 7.4% and SK Hynix gained 6.4%, with both names leading the regional recovery as bargain hunters stepped back in ahead of the key earnings week. South Korean regulators confirmed they are moving forward with restrictions on single-stock leveraged ETFs tied to Samsung and SK Hynix following the products' role in amplifying the recent correction.
Japan's Nikkei 225 added 1.75–2.8% to close at 65,926.41 after a Marine Day public holiday on Monday left the market closed for the worst of Monday's US declines. The Nikkei reclaimed the 64,000–65,000 zone as Philadelphia Semiconductor Index strength provided cover for chip and AI-adjacent names in Tokyo. Taiwan's TAIEX surged 4.2% on the export order beat, with TSMC and other semiconductor names leading. Hong Kong's Hang Seng edged higher. China's Shanghai Composite was mixed as investors weighed the Iran-Canada geopolitical escalation against the broader tech recovery. Australia's S&P/ASX 200 closed flat at 8,793.30 as WTI oil climbing to a five-week peak kept energy costs in focus. India's Nifty 50 gained 0.6% in early trade. Singapore's Straits Times Index edged down 0.5% after June non-oil domestic exports grew less than expected.

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