Trade Secrets: Dailies 09.02.2026

US Stocks open mixed as Dell's extraordinary earnings triple — adjusted EPS of $7.04 versus the $4.91 estimate on revenue up nearly 60% year-on-year — collides with the weakest ADP private payroll print since January, $95 oil on fresh US-Iran strikes, and a 10-year Treasury yield that briefly touched 4.82% this morning — its highest since late 2023 — making this the most conflicted tape of the week ahead of Friday's August nonfarm payrolls and Broadcom's after-close results tonight.

Dow Jones futures rose 0.3% and S&P 500 futures gained 0.1% while Nasdaq futures slipped 0.1% in early premarket — a mixed setup as Dell's blowout offset persistent oil and yield pressure. Polymarket's "S&P 500 Up or Down" contract implied just 53% odds of a higher open as of early morning. Tuesday's full session saw all three major indexes fall for a third straight day, with the Dow and S&P 500 each shedding 0.5% and the Nasdaq dropping 1.1% as WTI surged 2.4% and the 10-year yield hit new multi-year highs. WTI crude oil futures were down 1% to around $89 per barrel Wednesday morning — giving back a small portion of the prior two days' surge — while gold futures ticked lower to $4,380 an ounce and Bitcoin fell to $76,700 from Tuesday's high above $79,000.
Dell Technologies (DELL) surged 9.39% in premarket — its biggest single-session gain since its AI server business began accelerating — after reporting fiscal Q2 2027 adjusted EPS of $7.04, more than tripling year-on-year and blowing past the $4.91 analyst consensus by 43%. Revenue grew nearly 60% year-on-year, far exceeding the $45.19 billion estimate, with AI server demand the primary growth driver. Dell raised its full-year fiscal 2027 guidance significantly, making it one of the clearest direct beneficiaries of the hyperscaler AI capex commitments that Nvidia, Microsoft, Amazon, and Alphabet have each confirmed this earnings season. Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE) rose 5.5% in premarket in sympathy, given its own AI server exposure.
ADP's August private payroll report came in at just 38,000 jobs — below the 46,000 July reading and the Dow Jones consensus of 47,000, and the weakest monthly gain since January. Education and health services added 45,000 positions to lead all categories, while leisure and hospitality added 16,000 and construction gained 12,000. Manufacturing lost 17,000 jobs, professional and business services shed 16,000, and natural resources, trade, transportation and utilities each reported declines of 5,000. The weak ADP data cuts both ways: it reduces the economic growth case but also makes a Fed rate hike at the September 16 FOMC meeting slightly less mechanically supportable, even as Warsh's Jackson Hole rhetoric has already priced in a hike on inflation grounds alone. CME FedWatch showed September hike odds remaining near 57–60% despite the soft jobs data.
MongoDB (MDB) plunged 13.94% in premarket despite beating Q2 fiscal 2027 estimates, as investors focused on slower-than-expected database subscription growth and a cautious tone on enterprise spending into year-end. GitLab (GTLB) surged 20–21% after a blowout Q2 report with raised guidance, becoming the week's second software name — alongside Dell — to confirm that AI-driven enterprise technology spending remains robust. Palo Alto Networks (PANW) fell 1.73% despite reporting better-than-expected Q4 results and issuing strong fiscal 2027 guidance, a sell-the-news reaction after the stock's strong run into the print.
Broadcom (AVGO) and Snowflake (SNOW) report after today's close — the session's central earnings events — with Broadcom the more consequential for the AI trade. Schwab noted the Palo Alto results follow strength from CrowdStrike last week "just as Broadcom reports late Wednesday after Nvidia's recent solid outing," with the predecessor performances raising the bar and providing insight on AI and software spending trends. NetApp (NTAP), Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE), and Five Below (FIVE) also report today. July factory orders and the Federal Reserve's Beige Book — the first qualitative read on regional economic conditions since the Iran war's re-escalation — both print at 10:00 a.m. ET.
The 10-year Treasury yield reached 4.82% earlier Wednesday morning — its highest since late 2023 — before pulling back slightly to 4.78%, as the combined weight of Warsh's hawkish Jackson Hole speech, renewed Iran hostilities, and surging oil kept borrowing costs at levels that are beginning to meaningfully pressure equity valuations for long-duration growth stocks. Schwab's Equal Weight S&P 500 analysis noted the index "advanced slightly in August but flagged in the final days along with breadth, possibly a sign that fewer stocks are doing more of the footwork" — a warning that the bull market's foundation is narrowing even as headline indexes hold near records.
Japan's Nikkei 225 closed 2.85% lower at 64,325.64 — its worst session in two weeks — as the fresh Iran strikes, surging oil, and the 10-year yield's multi-year high triggered a broad risk-off selloff in AI and chip-adjacent names. South Korea's KOSPI fell 4% to 6,562.72, with Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix leading declines as memory names globally came under pressure from the macro headwinds. Australia's S&P/ASX 200 dropped 0.97% to 8,978.40. Hong Kong's Hang Seng was down 0.24% in its final hour of trade and China's CSI 300 closed 1.38% lower at 4,547.96 — mainland Chinese markets underperforming the region as property sector concerns and muted policy signals from Beijing compounded the global risk-off mood. Europe's benchmark Stoxx 600 was trading below the flatline in early London trade.

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