Trade Secrets: Dailies 07.22.2026

US Stocks open near flat as investors hold their breath ahead of the most consequential earnings triple-header of the summer — Alphabet, Tesla, and IBM all report after the close today — with chip stocks extending their second-day rebound, oil rising on renewed Iran ceasefire pessimism, and 88% of S&P 500 reporters beating estimates so far this season.

Dow Jones futures dipped just 16 points, while S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq-100 futures were both flat in overnight trading. Tuesday's full session was strongly positive: the Dow rose 385.38 points or 0.74% to 52,224.64, the S&P 500 advanced 0.89% to close at 7,509.20, and the Nasdaq Composite added 1.29% to 25,837.21 — all three indexes breaking three-day losing streaks. Of the roughly 66 S&P 500 companies that have reported so far this earnings season, nearly 88% have beaten bottom-line estimates per FactSet, the strongest beat rate in years.
Alphabet (GOOGL) is the premarket's single biggest catalyst when results land after the close. Analysts expect Q2 EPS of $2.86–$2.95 on revenue of $116.5–$120.2 billion, representing year-over-year growth of roughly 21%. Google Cloud is expected to maintain its roughly 64% year-over-year growth rate, with the segment's contracted backlog having nearly doubled sequentially to $462 billion at the end of Q1. Full-year 2026 capital expenditure guidance of $175–$190 billion will be scrutinized closely — any upward revision risks a repeat of the TSMC capex-shock reaction from last week, while confirmation of the existing range plus strong cloud margin data would likely reinvigorate the AI trade. Alphabet shares have declined about 9% since late April despite the underlying business posting record results.
Tesla (TSLA) also reports after the close and carries its own distinct set of risks. Wall Street expects Q2 EPS of $0.55 on revenue around $22.1 billion, though Tesla is down 12% in 2026 and the AI/robotaxi narrative now carries as much weight as EV delivery numbers. Tesla opened Tuesday at $396.10. ServiceNow (NOW), IBM (IBM), Texas Instruments (TXN), AT&T (T), and CME Group (CME) are also on the earnings slate today. Texas Instruments guided for Q3 EPS of $1.36–$1.60 per share at the midpoint below the $1.51 Wall Street consensus, flagging continued automotive sector weakness and lingering tariff risk — a drag the company disclosed in overnight trading.
3M (MMM) surged more than 7% Tuesday after its Q2 earnings topped expectations and the industrial giant raised its full-year profit outlook, crediting cost cuts and a shift toward higher-margin products. General Motors (GM) beat both top and bottom lines for Q2, lifting shares nearly 5%. Both were among the strongest Dow performers Tuesday and are representative of the broader non-tech earnings strength that is keeping the Dow more resilient than the Nasdaq during the chip selloff.
On Iran, ceasefire mediation took a step backward overnight. Oil climbed on pessimism over peace talks after reports that a proposed 10-day ceasefire framework was rejected by one or both parties in back-channel exchanges. Three American service members were killed in the latest Iranian-backed attack on US facilities, prompting Trump to vow consequences. WTI crude rose toward $83–$84 per barrel and Brent edged higher as the renewed conflict pessimism unwound some of the prior session's relief. Trump also signed new 50% tariffs on Canadian goods into effect Tuesday, adding a fresh trade overhang to the macro backdrop.
Japan's Nikkei 225 surged 1.71% to 67,364.56 on Wednesday, extending Tuesday's rebound, as June export data showed Japanese exports grew 19.3% year-on-year — the strongest pace since late 2022 and above the 18.6% May reading — driven by higher overseas sales of semiconductor equipment and a weaker yen at around 163.10 per dollar. The Nikkei briefly surged more than 1,000 points intraday before investors trimmed positions ahead of the Alphabet and Tesla results. South Korea's KOSPI soared 5.68% to 7,131.43, its second straight day of sharp gains, as Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix led the rebound and MSCI's Asia-Pacific equities gauge rose 1.3% to extend Tuesday's biggest one-day gain in a month. The Kosdaq rose 2%. The unwinding of leveraged bets that drove the benchmark nearly 30% below its peak appeared to be nearing an end per Bloomberg analysis.
Australia's S&P/ASX 200 edged up 0.12–0.21% to 8,812.20, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng fell 0.40–0.66% to 25,032.24. China's Shanghai Composite advanced 0.24% to 3,873.74 and the Shenzhen Component gained 0.22% to 14,296.07. India's Nifty 50 was little changed in early trade. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan extended gains for a second straight session, though oil's renewed climb kept energy-import-sensitive markets on edge heading into the US open.

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