Trade Secrets: Dailies 07.23.2026

US Stocks open sharply lower as Alphabet's record AI capex hike and Tesla's worst revenue miss in a decade revive the market's deepest fear — that big tech is spending its way into a value trap — while Brent crude tops $98 on Houthi tanker attacks off Saudi Arabia and a two-chokepoint oil supply problem takes shape across the Middle East.

Nasdaq futures fell 0.7%, Dow and S&P 500 futures dropped 0.5%, and Russell 2000 futures slipped 0.3% as of 4:00 a.m. ET, extending Wednesday's session losses in which the Dow ended nearly flat, the S&P 500 declined 0.14% to 7,498.96, and the Nasdaq Composite lost 0.57% to 25,690.90. The VIX pushed higher as the market absorbed the twin shock of mega-cap capex acceleration and an oil supply crisis that is now threatening two of the world's most critical shipping chokepoints simultaneously.
Alphabet (GOOGL) fell 4–5% in premarket after reporting Q2 results that beat on both revenue and EPS — Google Cloud revenue surged 82% year-on-year — but the company raised its full-year 2026 capital expenditure forecast to $195–$205 billion, up from the prior $180–$190 billion range and now $15–$20 billion above what analysts had modeled entering the week. The raised capex guidance, citing the need for more AI capacity, is on track to be the largest single-year CapEx commitment in US corporate history. Memory stocks paradoxically gained on the news — Micron (MU), SanDisk (SNDK), SK Hynix US shares (SKHY), and Western Digital (WDC) all moved higher in premarket, reading the Alphabet commitment as direct validation of the AI infrastructure demand cycle.
Tesla (TSLA) cratered 5–7% in premarket after reporting its worst revenue decline in a decade. Q2 revenue fell 12% year-on-year — the biggest drop since 2016 — as automotive revenue missed expectations, gross margins fell short of estimates, and revenue from high-margin regulatory credits declined sharply. Tesla missed Wall Street's EPS estimates of $0.55 by a wide margin, with Deepwater Asset Management's Gene Munster noting that capital expenditures could continue to outpace Wall Street's forecasts as Tesla accelerates robotaxi and AI spending. ARK Investment's Cathie Wood disclosed significant purchases of both Tesla and Archer Aviation (ACHR) on Wednesday, and Munster suggested management commentary strengthened the case for closer Tesla-SpaceX collaboration.
ServiceNow (NOW) was the standout earnings winner overnight, surging in premarket after posting Q2 results that beat across the board with stronger-than-expected guidance, validating enterprise AI software demand even as capex concerns rattled hardware names. Lockheed Martin (LMT) beat Q2 estimates, reporting sales of $20.1 billion against the $19.344 billion estimate with a Q2 backlog of $230.42 billion — up 38.3% from $166.5 billion a year earlier — and raised its full-year EPS view to $29.95–$30.65. RTX Corp. (RTX) also beat estimates. Defense names broadly outperformed as war-driven backlog expansion continued. Reliance (RS) posted Q2 EPS of $6.27 versus the $5.47 estimate on revenue up 26.5% to $4.63 billion.
Intel (INTC) reports after the close today — the most closely watched remaining Magnificent Seven-adjacent earnings of the week — alongside Union Pacific, T-Mobile, and Comcast. Weekly initial jobless claims print at 8:30 a.m. ET. The ECB decision is also due Thursday, with markets pricing a hold as European policymakers weigh Iran-driven energy inflation against weakening demand.
Bitcoin (BTC) climbed back above $66,000 overnight ahead of a Senate vote on the Clarity Act — the bipartisan crypto market structure bill — after Trump accepted an ethics provision that had stalled the legislation. Iran also killed two additional US troops in Jordan overnight, bringing the US death toll to at least 19 since the conflict began February 28, prompting Trump to threaten strikes on Iranian infrastructure including oil refineries and power plants.
Oil surged to near-cycle highs on a two-chokepoint problem. Brent crude topped $98 per barrel — its highest since early June — and WTI rose 1.7% to $88.27, with Brent on course for a monthly gain of 33.7%, its third-biggest monthly jump in a decade. Iran-backed Houthi militants claimed responsibility for striking two Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea near Al Shuhqaiq, Saudi Arabia, causing fires but no casualties. The attacks prompted vessels to divert from the Bab el-Mandeb Strait — the second major shipping chokepoint now affected alongside Hormuz — creating what Saxo analysts described as a genuine two-chokepoint supply disruption. Gold held above $4,100 an ounce as Middle East safe-haven demand persisted. Silver traded near $60 per barrel and copper headed toward its highest close since mid-June.
Asian markets opened higher Thursday despite the overnight Wall Street declines, led by South Korea's KOSPI which jumped 4.4% as the Alphabet capex raise reinforced AI infrastructure demand and the KOSPI's two-week correction appeared to be nearing exhaustion. The Nikkei 225 advanced 307 points to 66,422, with chip and AI-adjacent names recovering for a third straight day. The Shanghai Composite rose 9 points to 3,876 and the Hang Seng jumped 318 points. Australia's S&P/ASX 200 was flat to modestly higher. The dollar eased modestly while the yen remained pinned above 163 per dollar on Bank of Japan rate hike speculation heading into next week's BOJ meeting.

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