Trade Secrets: Dailies 08.04.2026

US Stocks surge to fresh records as Palantir's "otherworldly" quarterly results and Treasury Secretary Bessent's declaration that a Strait of Hormuz deal could be "imminent" send Dow futures up 600 points, oil below $80, and the AI software trade into its strongest session since the Citadel-Situational Awareness rescue a week ago — with AMD and SpaceX's first-ever quarterly report as a public company due after the close.

Dow Jones futures surged 600 points or 0.87%, S&P 500 futures gained 0.26%, and Nasdaq-100 futures rose 0.94% in premarket, building on Monday's record-setting session in which the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at an all-time high, the Nasdaq gained 2.1%, and advancers beat decliners by more than two-to-one in the broadest rally in weeks. The Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF (MAGS) fell 0.93% to $67.70 in premarket as some profit-taking hit mega-cap names, but the broader tape was firmly bullish on the Bessent Hormuz signal and Palantir's beat.
Palantir Technologies (PLTR) surged 15–17% in premarket to around $145.90 after CEO Alex Karp described the company's Q2 as delivering "otherworldly" results — commercial revenue surging 149% year-on-year to $764 million, with US commercial revenue alone up 78% and government revenue accelerating sharply. The company raised its full-year 2026 revenue outlook to approximately $1.81 billion — an 81% increase year-on-year. Karp renewed his criticism of frontier AI companies, saying Palantir "does not get paid for clicks or tokens or chats," positioning the company as a real-economy AI platform rather than a speculative infrastructure play. Palantir's result is being read as the clearest confirmation yet that AI software demand is translating into actual enterprise revenue at scale.
Caterpillar (CAT) led Dow futures higher, rising 9% in premarket after beating Q2 expectations and lifting its revenue growth outlook, pointing to robust demand for its construction and mining equipment and noting that full-year tariff costs are likely to land at the low end of the range it had previously projected — a notable contrast to other industrials that cited tariff headwinds. ON Semiconductor (ON) rose 8% to $86.50 after posting strong quarterly earnings on the back of steady AI demand. Snap (SNAP) jumped 9% on strong Q2 advertising and subscription growth, with CEO Evan Spiegel noting significant room for further subscription expansion ahead of the Specs launch event in September. McDonald's (MCD) was flat to modestly higher despite missing US same-store sales growth expectations for Q2 — a signal that the Iran-driven energy cost burden is weighing on consumer spending at its core fast-food customer base.
AMD reports after the close tonight alongside SpaceX's first-ever quarterly results as a public company since its June 12 IPO. Analysts expect AMD Q2 revenue of $11.28 billion on adjusted EPS of $1.61, with particular focus on data center GPU revenue growth and the company's competitive positioning against Nvidia. SpaceX will be closely watched for Starlink subscriber growth, launch cadence data, and any updated Colossus AI cluster revenue figures. JOLTS job openings and the US trade balance also print at 10:00 a.m. ET.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told reporters Tuesday morning that a US-Iran agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz "could be imminent," adding that negotiations are in a "very good place." Trump separately expressed optimism about reaching comprehensive agreements: "There's a deal on Hormuz and then there will be a deal on the nuclear." Iran's foreign ministry pushed back, with spokesman Esmaeil Baqaei saying that "the understanding between Iran and Oman regarding a new route is unrelated to the reopening or continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz" — Iran's standard strategy of negotiating without appearing to negotiate. WTI crude fell below $80 per barrel and Brent dropped sharply on the Bessent comments, reversing a portion of last week's oil spike. Gold edged up 0.1% to around $4,060.
Amazon (AMZN) slipped over 1% in premarket despite touching a $3 trillion market cap for the first time in its history on Monday, after founder Jeff Bezos filed a Form 144 to sell up to 15 million shares — nearly $4 billion — under a prearranged trading plan. Cathie Wood's ARK separately bought nearly $21 million of Amazon shares on Monday. Of the roughly 300 S&P 500 companies that have now reported Q2 earnings, 85% have beaten estimates per FactSet, with aggregate profits tracking to grow more than 47% year-on-year — one of the strongest earnings seasons on record. RBC Capital Markets' Lori Calvasina reiterated her year-end S&P 500 target of 8,150.
South Korea's KOSPI fell 1.66%–4.87% on Tuesday — sources showed a volatile session in which the index opened up more than 1%, briefly recovered the 6,300 level on Wall Street's Monday gains, then reversed sharply as Samsung Electronics fell 7.52% to 243,000 KRW and SK Hynix dropped 6.90% to around 1,600,000 KRW, dragging the KOSPI to as low as 6,153 before partial recovery. The KOSDAQ surged 3.98%–5.11%, triggering a buy sidecar for the third straight session, reflecting a sharp divergence between retail-driven small-cap recovery and the large-cap semiconductor selloff. Morgan Stanley upgraded South Korean equities from Neutral to Overweight, citing an attractive entry point following leveraged capital liquidation and targeting a recovery toward KOSPI 9,000, favoring industrials, defense, and financials as the recovery pillars. The KOSPI is still up 49.36% year-to-date and 101.77% over the past year despite July's 22.18% monthly decline.
Japan's Nikkei 225 fell 1.12%–607 points to 63,643–63,754 on Monday as chip and AI-linked names gave back a portion of Friday's record-bounce gains. Kioxia rose 6.37% and SoftBank gained 0.97%, bucking the broader pressure. The Topix also declined. Hong Kong's Hang Seng fell 0.60% and India's Nifty 50 dropped 1.27%, while China's CSI 300 closed higher and Australia's S&P/ASX 200 edged up. The dollar stabilized near 160 yen as the BOJ's hawkish July statement and suspected coordinated yen intervention kept the currency from sliding back toward 164, with the two-year JGB yield ticking higher in anticipation of a September BOJ rate hike.

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