Trade Secrets: Dailies 07.29.2026

US Stocks open in a holding pattern as Wall Street braces for the most consequential session of the year — the Fed's rate decision at 2:00 p.m. ET followed by Meta and Microsoft earnings after the close — even as SK Hynix's record-but-disappointing Q2 results send the KOSPI crashing 12% and the Nikkei tumbling again overnight, deepening the global chip sector correction.

S&P 500 futures edged up 0.18% and Dow Jones futures were little changed in early premarket, while Nasdaq-100 futures oscillated near the flatline as investors waited for the day's two marquee events — the Federal Reserve's 2:00 p.m. ET policy announcement and Kevin Warsh's press conference at 2:30 p.m. ET, followed by Meta Platforms and Microsoft results after the bell. Polymarket's "S&P 500 up or down" contract implied a 70% probability of a higher open as of early Wednesday. Tuesday's session saw the Dow rise 537.24 points or 1.03% to 52,747.32 — a third straight daily gain — while the S&P 500 added 0.21% to 7,428.78 and the Nasdaq edged down 0.22% to 24,876.91 as chip losses continued to drag.
SK Hynix (SKHY) reported Q2 2026 results that were extraordinary by any historical measure — operating profit surged 557% year-on-year to a record 60.54 trillion won ($41.6 billion), revenue jumped 257% to 79.32 trillion won ($54.5 billion), and cumulative first-half revenue crossed 100 trillion won for the first time in the company's history — but both figures missed LSEG SmartEstimate consensus calls of 64 trillion won operating profit and 84 trillion won revenue, as delays in HBM4 shipments limited price gains for conventional DRAM during the quarter. The absence of any concrete shareholder return plan added to the disappointment. Korean-listed shares fell as much as 20% before closing down 9.6%, while the US-listed ADR (SKHY) fell 3.4% in overnight trading. SK Hynix said HBM4 mass production shipments began in Q2 and will expand through H2 2026, and has locked in long-term supply agreements with 10 major customers to stabilize its historically volatile earnings profile.
The Federal Reserve is widely expected to hold rates at 3.50%–3.75% at today's meeting — the fifth consecutive hold — with CME FedWatch showing roughly 68% probability of no change. What markets are really watching is Warsh's language around the September meeting, where a quarter-point hike remains the consensus base case. Brent crude jumped 3.5% to $87.01 a barrel and WTI gained 3.8% to $82.27 in early trading after Iran fired ballistic missiles at US forces in the Middle East overnight — ending a brief ceasefire lull — and the US and Saudi Arabia jointly struck Iranian-backed facilities in response. The renewed escalation raises fresh inflation risk heading into the announcement.
Meta Platforms (META) reports after the close with analysts expecting Q2 revenue of $58–$61 billion, representing roughly 20% year-on-year growth. Meta projected full-year 2026 capital expenditure of $125–$145 billion — already a market concern — and any upward revision risks a repeat of the Alphabet capex-shock selloff from last week. Microsoft (MSFT) also reports tonight, with analysts expecting Q4 Azure cloud revenue growth of 39–40% in constant currency and EPS of $4.24 on revenue of roughly $79 billion. Microsoft has targeted record capital spending of $190 billion in its 2026 fiscal year. Both results will be read as the definitive verdict on whether the AI capex supercycle has peaked or whether the sell-side's concerns are overblown.
Ford Motor (F) rose nearly 5% in premarket after posting Q2 adjusted EPS of $0.42, beating the $0.36 estimate, on revenue of $48.3 billion, and raising its full-year 2026 adjusted EBIT guidance to $10–$11 billion from $8.5–$10.5 billion despite a GAAP net loss tied to EV-related charges. Teradyne (TER) surged more than 7% after Q2 revenue of $1.33 billion beat the $1.22 billion estimate, with the CEO saying AI demand remains "robust" and sees growth extending into 2027. Bloom Energy (BE) soared 10–11% after Q2 revenue crossed $1 billion for the first time — a double beat with raised 2026 guidance on data center power demand. Michael Burry separately warned that Nvidia's "overreaching" is pushing AI circular spending to what he called "biblical proportions" as credit default swap risks surge. Vertiv (VRT) fell sharply after citing "minor timing shifts" that weighed on Q2 revenue.
Procter & Gamble (PG), General Dynamics (GD), and Aon (AON) also report today, alongside EIA crude oil inventory data at 10:30 a.m. ET — with markets expecting a 700,000-barrel build versus the prior week's 2.01 million-barrel increase. Samsung Electronics is due to report its Q2 results Thursday, with analysts estimating a 19-fold jump in operating profit and greater pricing power than SK Hynix due to more aggressive DRAM pricing.
South Korea's KOSPI plunged 12% to close at 5,301.61 — its worst single-day decline in 26 years and its third circuit breaker halt of the week — as SK Hynix fell 9.6%–20% intraday and Samsung Electronics dropped sharply in sympathy. The index is now down more than 36% from its June peak and has erased all of its 2026 gains, returning to April levels. BNK Investment & Securities warned profit could be 8% below market consensus due to slower HBM chip price increases. The Kosdaq fell 4.98%.
Japan's Nikkei 225 fell further, with Kioxia dropping nearly 8%, SoftBank Group losing more than 6%, and Tokyo Electron declining nearly 5% in early Wednesday trading, extending Tuesday's 3.95% decline. The index opened below 62,000 as the semiconductor sector correction deepened. Taiwan's TAIEX also fell as the chip sector overhang rippled across the region. Hong Kong's Hang Seng edged higher, holding near 25,200, supported by Chinese tech and consumer names. China's Shanghai Composite was little changed near 3,813. Australia's S&P/ASX 200 continued to outperform the region, gaining ground for a second straight session. Gold slipped 0.80% to $4,044.20 and silver fell 2.15% to $57.46.

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