Trade Secrets: Dailies 07.30.2026

US Stocks rebound cautiously as Microsoft's blowout Azure quarter offsets Meta's free cash flow shock and a 1,153-point Dow collapse on Wednesday, with the session's verdict now resting on this morning's Q2 GDP and PCE inflation prints at 8:30 a.m. ET and Apple and Amazon earnings after the close.

Dow Jones futures rose 158 points or 0.31%, S&P 500 futures gained 0.41–0.67%, and Nasdaq-100 futures surged 0.74–1.66% in premarket, recovering from Wednesday's brutal session in which the Dow plunged 1,153.18 points or 2.19% — its biggest single-day decline since April 2025 — the S&P 500 fell 1.5%, and the Nasdaq 100 lost 2.1%. The selloff was triggered by a three-dissent Fed decision — three FOMC members voted for an immediate rate hike, the most hawkish internal split in over a decade — alongside a 1-hour, 130-point S&P 500 swing immediately after Warsh's press conference ended, as rising oil on fresh US-Iran strikes revived inflation fears.
Microsoft (MSFT) surged 8.13–9.6% in premarket after reporting Q4 fiscal 2026 results that beat across every line: revenue rose 18% year-on-year to $90 billion, Azure cloud revenue grew 43% and topped $100 billion in quarterly sales for the first time, Copilot AI assistant reached 30 million paid seats, and Intelligent Cloud sales beat expectations. Adjusted EPS of $4.74 topped estimates. Crucially, Microsoft kept its capital expenditure guidance unchanged — a direct contrast to Alphabet's capex shock last week — providing the market with the "spending discipline" signal investors had been demanding from hyperscalers.
Meta Platforms (META) fell 8.4–8.51% in premarket despite narrowly beating Q2 EPS estimates, as the company's free cash flow collapsed 91% from a year earlier to just $784 million — its lowest since Q3 2022 — as AI capex spending accelerated. Meta guided Q3 revenue of $61–$64 billion, with a midpoint of $62.5 billion below the $63.15 billion analyst consensus. Full-year 2026 capex guidance was raised to $130–$145 billion from the prior $125–$145 billion range. CEO Mark Zuckerberg said AI is "accelerating the core business," but TheStreet noted the market has heard the same capex-returns argument from every hyperscaler this earnings season without seeing free cash flow to match.
The morning's dominant data event is at 8:30 a.m. ET: the advance Q2 2026 GDP estimate alongside June's PCE price index, personal income, and consumer spending data — all releasing simultaneously. Consensus entering the session expected headline PCE to rise 3.7% year-on-year in June, down from 4.1% in May, and core PCE to grow 3.3% annually. Post-release, data showed June PCE rose 3.7% year-on-year and declined 0.1% month-on-month — the first monthly drop since April 2020 — driven by retreating energy prices, offering some inflation relief. Weekly initial jobless claims also print at 8:30 a.m. ET. The Bank of England holds its rate decision later this morning.
Lam Research (LRCX) surged 14.1% in premarket after reporting record quarterly revenue and earnings, bucking the broader semiconductor sector selloff as semiconductor equipment demand — a longer-cycle business than chip sales — proved resilient. MarketAxess Holdings (MKTX) soared nearly 30% after Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) agreed to acquire the electronic bond trading platform in a $5.7 billion all-cash deal. EMCOR Group (EME) climbed 13.7% on a blowout Q2 earnings beat. Qualcomm (QCOM) fell 4.8% after Q3 revenue of $9.9 billion beat the $9.67 billion estimate but adjusted EPS of $2.21 missed the $2.23 consensus by a slim margin. Apple's (AAPL) plan to procure memory chips from Chinese suppliers including CXMT and YMTC was blocked by US regulators, sending shares modestly lower ahead of tonight's earnings report alongside Amazon.
WTI crude futures held near $84.74 per barrel and Brent edged higher as US-Iran strikes continued overnight for a ninth consecutive day. Gold was little changed at $4,069.93 and Bitcoin fell 0.14% to $64,211. The US Dollar Index was flat at 100.95. Treasury yields remained elevated after Wednesday's post-Fed surge, with the 10-year note holding above 4.7% — a key pressure point for growth stock valuations.
Samsung Electronics posted Q2 2026 operating profit of 89.49 trillion won — a 1,813.8% year-on-year surge that smashed market expectations — driven by soaring AI chip demand and aggressive DRAM pricing. The result was the polar opposite of SK Hynix's miss a day earlier. South Korea's KOSPI surged more than 5% intraday to a session high of 5,976.82 in response before reversing sharply as US Treasury yield fears and profit-taking dominated the afternoon, leaving the index down 1.23% at 5,593.56 — failing to reclaim the 6,000 threshold despite the record earnings catalyst. SK Hynix fell a further 5.64% and Samsung reversed to close 0.72% lower despite the beat. South Korean regulators raised the minimum cash deposit for single-stock leveraged ETFs tied to Samsung and SK Hynix to 30 million won effective July 31, up from 10 million won, targeting retail speculation that has amplified the market's historic volatility.
Japan's Nikkei 225 rebounded 0.71–0.93% to close at 62,003.09, extending an early morning recovery as Microsoft's earnings lifted sentiment in tech-adjacent names and SoftBank pared some of its recent losses. The Topix fell 0.54%, a notable divergence from the Nikkei as defensive and financial names lagged. Hong Kong's Hang Seng rose 0.20% to 25,858, while China's Shanghai Composite fell 0.62% to 3,804 and the Shenzhen Component dropped 1.30%, with mainland markets lagging on continued property sector concerns and muted policy response. Australia's S&P/ASX 200 fell 0.78% to 8,967.70. India's Nifty 50 rose modestly and Singapore's Straits Times Index was little changed.

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