Trade Secrets: Dailies 08.05.2026

US Stocks open modestly higher as Hormuz deal optimism and a record-setting Wall Street session override SpaceX and AMD's post-earnings selloff, with the Dow and S&P 500 both at all-time highs and a packed earnings slate — Disney, Uber, Eli Lilly, SanDisk, and Western Digital — alongside ADP employment and ISM Services data setting the tone for the back half of the week ahead of Friday's jobs report.

Dow Jones futures rose 0.23–0.87%, S&P 500 futures gained 0.27–0.42%, and Nasdaq-100 futures were little changed near the flatline in premarket, as SpaceX and AMD dragged on tech while Hormuz deal hope and strong broader earnings kept the Dow and S&P elevated after Tuesday's searing rally — in which the Dow and S&P 500 closed at record highs, the Nasdaq gained 0.4%, and advancers beat decliners by more than two to one. Telecom stocks Verizon and AT&T shed more than 2% each and T-Mobile slipped 0.8% in premarket after SpaceX revealed ambitions to build full-fledged mobile network service — a direct competitive threat to the three carriers' core business.
SpaceX (SPCX) tumbled 10–12% in premarket in its first earnings report since its June 12 IPO, despite revenue nearly doubling year-on-year and operating losses narrowing sharply on strength in Starlink satellite communications and AI businesses. The sell-the-news reaction was driven by SpaceX's disclosure that Q2 capital expenditure surged to $18.4 billion — a sixfold increase driven largely by AI infrastructure investment — and management's signal that the spending spree is far from over. Shares could face additional pressure from the expiry of the stock's post-IPO lock-up period beginning Thursday, which will bring a significant volume of insider shares into the market. Tesla slipped 0.8% in sympathy.
AMD (AMD) fell 8.1–9% in premarket despite forecasting quarterly revenue above estimates, reflecting strong AI demand. Analysts said investors were looking for a stronger outlook to justify the stock's 142% gain so far in 2026, with AMD's guidance for Q3 revenue coming in at the midpoint of expectations rather than materially above them. Nvidia (NVDA) rose 1.9% in premarket, underpinned by SpaceX's disclosure that it plans to use Nvidia hardware exclusively to build its data centers — a validation of Nvidia's enterprise data center monopoly even as AMD's own AI GPU business grows.
The day's heaviest earnings slate features Walt Disney (DIS), Uber (UBER), Eli Lilly (LLY), SanDisk (SNDK), Western Digital (WDC), Shopify (SHOP), Honeywell, Kraft Heinz, Novo Nordisk, and DoorDash — all reporting before or after the open. ADP's July national employment report prints at 8:15 a.m. ET, providing the first private-sector jobs read ahead of Friday's government nonfarm payrolls. S&P Global's final July Services PMI is at 9:45 a.m. ET and ISM Services for July lands at 10:00 a.m. ET.
The Iran diplomatic front moved materially on Tuesday as Qatar confirmed a proposal had been drafted between the US and Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Iran is also reportedly considering allowing European countries to remove mines from the strait — a significant concession that would meaningfully accelerate the normalization of shipping flows. Treasury Secretary Bessent told CNBC "I think there is a chance we may have a deal today or tomorrow to open the strait," adding it would be "good for the entire world." Trump simultaneously warned Iran would be "hit very hard" unless the waterway was reopened "very soon." WTI crude gained roughly 0.7% to $76.30 a barrel and Brent rose 1.6% to $80.63 as the brief oil price collapse on Bessent's Tuesday comments partially reversed on the continued uncertainty — oil is still down more than 10% this week on the combination of deal hopes and ship tracking data showing Gulf flows running higher than feared even with Hormuz constrained.
Gold surged 2.6% to around $4,183–$4,196 an ounce in premarket — its biggest single-session jump since the Iran war began in February — as the SpaceX and AMD capex shock reinforced the view that AI infrastructure spending is outpacing near-term revenue generation, boosting safe-haven demand even amid the broader equity rally. Bitcoin rose 0.4% to above $64,000. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield stood at 4.61%. The S&P 500 is now tracking toward 40% Q2 earnings growth per FactSet, with 85% of reporters beating estimates — one of the strongest earnings seasons in the index's history.
Japan's Nikkei 225 surged 3.7% to 66,300.44 on Wednesday, extending the AI and semiconductor rebound that began with Friday's historic bounce, with chipmaker Kioxia gaining 4.6% and testing equipment maker Advantest soaring 8.7%. The rebound was amplified by lower oil prices easing Japan's imported inflation concern and a steadier yen helping ease BOJ rate hike anxiety. Tokyo has become increasingly sensitive to moves in Seoul and Taipei, as overseas investors treat Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan as interconnected nodes of the same AI and memory-chip supply chain.
South Korea's KOSPI surged 3.8% to 6,598.26, led by a 7.4% gain for SK Hynix and a 3.5% advance for Samsung Electronics, as bargain-buying returned in force for the third straight session following July's historic 22% monthly decline. The Kospi has now recovered approximately 1,300 points — more than 24% — from its July 29 intraday low of around 5,300. Taiwan's TAIEX advanced 2.9% as TSMC gained 3.7%. China's CSI 300 and Hong Kong's Hang Seng both surged. India's Nifty 50 and Australia's S&P/ASX 200 declined, notable laggards in an otherwise broadly positive regional session. Germany's DAX rose 0.3% to 26,268.90, France's CAC 40 edged higher, and Britain's FTSE 100 gained 0.2% to 10,898.40 in early European trade.

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