Trade Secrets: Dailies 08.10.2026

US Stocks open the week on a cautious, muted note as indexes hover near all-time highs and investors brace for the most consequential inflation data of the summer — July CPI on Wednesday and PPI on Thursday — with oil creeping higher on renewed Hormuz deal uncertainty and Nvidia's earnings report later this month shaping up as the season's final AI verdict.

Dow Jones futures dipped slightly as crude oil prices gained momentum, while S&P 500 futures edged up 0.12% to around 7,785 and Nasdaq-100 futures rose 0.38% to near 29,896 heading into Monday's open. The major indexes were little changed in early trade, with Polymarket showing a 62% probability of a higher open. Last week delivered the Dow and Nasdaq their strongest weekly performance in months — the Dow and Nasdaq Composite each surged more than 1,300 points week-on-week and the S&P 500 gained over 250 points — driven by the July jobs miss slashing September rate hike odds, Palantir's blowout, and a string of software earnings beats.
The week's central macro events are Wednesday's July CPI and Thursday's PPI. Economists expect headline CPI to rise just 0.1% month-on-month and core CPI to increase 0.2% — both benign readings that, if confirmed, would further reduce the case for a September Fed hike. A stronger-than-expected reading, however, would revive hike expectations against the backdrop of oil hovering near $84 for Brent. The CME FedWatch tool showed September hike odds falling sharply after Friday's jobs data, with markets now pricing the first hike for November or December at the earliest.
Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX) gained 7.24% in premarket after beating Q2 earnings estimates, continuing the trend of non-tech names outperforming this earnings season. Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE) rose 5.22% after Morgan Stanley upgraded the stock from Equalweight to Overweight, citing AI server demand visibility through 2027. SpaceX (SPCX) rose 3% to $137.12 in premarket after breaking a four-week losing streak on Friday following the end of its post-IPO lock-up period — though retail investors turned net sellers for the first time since the June IPO, with Vanda Research data showing mom-and-pop traders selling a net $4.5 million of SPCX on August 7.
The week's earnings slate is lighter than recent weeks but carries AI-specific significance: Applied Materials, Cisco, and CoreWeave all report, providing the next data points on AI capital equipment demand and cloud infrastructure revenue before Nvidia's Q2 report — the season's final and most-watched result — due later in August. Goldman Sachs reiterated its bullish equity stance and forecast oil would soften below $70 per barrel once Hormuz flows normalize, while UBS flagged near-term gold risks but maintained its $5,000-per-ounce long-term target.
Iran said Sunday that a deal with Oman defining new shipping lanes through the Strait of Hormuz is in its final stages — but simultaneously reiterated that the waterway would only fully reopen once the United States met additional conditions, including a halt to all sanctions and withdrawal of military assets from the Gulf region. Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps separately reported missile strikes on a tanker off Oman in the Hormuz southern corridor over the weekend, reminding markets that physical shipping disruption continues even as diplomacy advances. Brent crude gained 1.0% to $84.40 a barrel at the open, while WTI added 2.81%. Citi raised its Q3 Brent forecast to $80 a barrel from $75, citing the drawn-out five-month conflict and repeated failed attempts to restore normal Hormuz flows, while keeping its Q4 target at $70 and its 2027 average at $65.
The Bank of Japan's July meeting summary released Monday showed the BOJ board is split on the pace of rate hikes, with some members arguing for a faster tightening path while others urged caution given global uncertainty. Japan's average cash earnings rose 3.4% year-on-year in June — the 54th consecutive month of nominal wage growth — strengthening the case for a September BOJ rate hike. China's July CPI came in soft, with the PBOC setting its USD/CNY reference rate at 6.7884, above the 6.7379 estimate, suggesting mild capital pressure on the yuan.
Japan's Nikkei 225 surged 2.1% to close at 66,970.22, led by Tokyo Electron gaining 4.1% and Advantest rising 6.4% as the jobs-miss-driven rate-cut optimism boosted AI and chip-adjacent names. The broader rebound was driven by foreign investors rotating back into Japanese technology names after weeks of selling. South Korea's KOSPI added a more modest 0.7% to 6,299.66 as Samsung Electronics lost 0.4% and SK Hynix fell 0.1%, with analysts noting foreign investors were selling the big chip names to lock in profits and rebalance into defense and financials. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan edged up 0.3%. Australia's S&P/ASX 200 was little changed near its record high of 9,272 set Thursday. China's CSI 300 was modestly higher. India's BSE Sensex edged up and Singapore's OCBC and UOB — which both reported record or near-record Q2 profits last week — kept the Straits Times Index resilient.

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This daily briefing is curated from a wide range of reputable sources including news wires, research desks, and financial data providers. The insights presented here are a synthesis of key developments across global markets, intended to inform and spark thought.

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