Trade Secrets: Dailies 08.17.2026

US Stocks open the week in muted fashion as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq hover near record highs and investors weigh Anthropic's extraordinary revenue surge against a softer-than-expected July retail sales print from Friday, with the Iran 60-day ceasefire expiring today without a deal, a heavy retail earnings week — Home Depot, Walmart, Target, Lowe's — and the Fed's Jackson Hole conference later this month now in sharp focus.

S&P 500 futures inched up 0.11% and Nasdaq-100 futures gained 0.34%, while Dow Jones futures dipped 0.09% and Russell 2000 futures slipped 0.01% heading into Monday's open — a slightly mixed setup reflecting mild consolidation after the S&P 500 notched its third record close of last week and the Russell 2000 touched all-time highs three times in the past five sessions, signaling a broadening bull market beyond mega-cap tech. Polymarket's "S&P 500 Up or Down on August 17" contract implied a 62% probability of a higher open. The 10-year Treasury yield held at 4.696%, a meaningful uptick from prior levels, while crude rose 1.44% to $82.42 and gold gained 1.49% to $4,428.80 — both reflecting a mix of geopolitical hedging and cyclical demand.
Anthropic's Q2 revenue surpassed $11.5 billion — a 14-fold or greater jump versus a year earlier per Bloomberg — with investors now expecting the Claude AI developer's valuation to exceed $2 trillion at its stock market debut, which the Financial Times reported could come as soon as October. The revenue figure dwarfs what had been the company's most optimistic internal projections at the start of the year and is being read as a direct confirmation that AI model revenue has reached enterprise scale. Memory chip stocks Micron Technology and SanDisk both extended their sharp gains from last week in premarket trade, while Nvidia and Amazon inched higher. The broader AI trade continues to broaden into cloud, software, and model-layer names even as hardware valuations have cooled from July's highs.
July retail sales fell a surprising 0.6% month-on-month Friday — well below the 0.2% gain economists expected and following June's 0.2% increase — as lower gas prices and falling car sales pulled the headline lower. Schwab's Collin Martin said the data combined with the soft July jobs report "may make people worry about a softening economy, but one month doesn't make a trend." Markets absorbed the miss without breaking Friday's record close, but the number sets up this week's retail earnings — Home Depot Tuesday, Target and Walmart Thursday — as the definitive read on whether the US consumer is still holding up under the dual weight of elevated oil prices and high borrowing costs.
The 60-day US-Iran ceasefire that began in mid-June officially expires today with no breakthrough or deal in sight, per CNBC. Iran's Foreign Minister confirmed the country is not currently in direct talks with the US to end the conflict or reopen the Strait of Hormuz, even as Washington has repeatedly asserted a deal is near. Trump praised what he described as a "newly signed" framework over the weekend — details remain unclear — but Hormuz remains physically blocked and the US Central Command has launched what it called "the first-ever multi-domain, multinational attack drone task force," nine months after its first dedicated one-way attack drone squadron in the region. Oil held near $82.42 for WTI and Brent was around $87, with both benchmarks well off their wartime highs but still pricing a meaningful conflict premium.
The Empire State Manufacturing Survey for August posted a reading of 20.6 at 8:30 a.m. ET — its best level in more than four years, up 5 points from July and well above the Dow Jones consensus of 12 — driven by a surge in unfilled orders to 15.5, up 10 points from a month ago. The NAHB Housing Market Index for August is due at 10:00 a.m. ET. Wednesday brings the July FOMC minutes at 2:00 p.m. ET — the first look inside the three-dissent rate decision that rattled markets on July 29 — while Thursday's retail earnings from Walmart, Ross Stores, and Deere provide the week's heaviest fundamental catalyst. The Federal Reserve's Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, typically a major policy signal vehicle, is scheduled for later this month with Chair Kevin Warsh expected to speak.
McDonald's fell 1.81%, UnitedHealth dropped 1.63%, and Microsoft slipped 1.09% in Monday's session, dragging on the Dow, while Cisco Systems gained 1.49%, Caterpillar rose 0.70%, and Goldman Sachs added 0.31% as the session showed clear rotation from defensive mega-cap names toward industrials and financials. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick told the Wall Street Journal last week that the Trump administration does not support Apple buying memory chips from Chinese suppliers — a reaffirmation of the regulatory block on Apple's CXMT and YMTC procurement plans that had briefly lifted domestic memory names.
Japan's Nikkei 225 was poised to open near 68,900–69,350 based on Chicago and Osaka futures, above last week's close of 68,713.80. The Topix was broadly flat heading into Monday's session. South Korea's KOSPI closed Friday at approximately 6,813–6,977, having gained 11.5% for the week — its best weekly performance since the post-July-29 record bounce — as Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix extended their recovery. Hong Kong's Hang Seng index futures pointed to an open near 25,247, below last week's close of approximately 25,396, as mainland China's property sector continued to weigh on sentiment despite modest policy signals. China's Shanghai Composite was near 3,927 and the CSI 300 near 4,664. Australia's S&P/ASX 200 futures pointed to a flat to modestly lower open near 9,091 from last week's close of 9,188.50, with iron ore softness and energy sector caution keeping the benchmark from extending its recent record highs.

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