Trade Secrets: Dailies 08.26.2026

US Stocks open flat to modestly lower on the most consequential session of the summer as July PCE inflation comes in sticky — headline rising 3.7% year-over-year, core holding steady at 3.3% — leaving markets treading water ahead of Nvidia's fiscal Q2 2027 earnings after the close, while Iran-Oman Hormuz talks restart, Meta settles a $16.7 billion social media addiction lawsuit, and SpaceX announces a $100 billion Starbase facility in Louisiana.

Nasdaq-100 E-minis fell 76.25 points or 0.26%, S&P 500 E-minis slipped 7.5 points or 0.10%, and Dow E-minis edged up 31 points or 0.06% heading into Wednesday's open — a muted setup reflecting investors choosing to hold positions rather than make directional bets ahead of Nvidia's after-close report. Tuesday's full session closed firmly higher: the S&P 500 rose 0.32% to 7,677.28, the Nasdaq Composite advanced 0.66% to 26,151.30, and the Dow added 160.24 points or 0.30% to 53,577.40, its third straight winning session, as oil fell more than 3% and Treasury yields slid for a second consecutive day with the 10-year dropping 7 basis points to 4.625%.
July PCE came in at 0.2% month-over-month and 3.7% year-over-year on the headline — above the 0.1% monthly and 3.6% annual consensus — while core PCE, excluding food and energy, rose 3.3% year-over-year, unchanged from June and in line with Reuters' economist poll. Northlight Asset Management's Chris Zaccarelli said that while the broader PCE numbers were worse than expected, "the most important measure — core PCE — held constant and that will give the Fed more time to leave rates on hold." LSEG data show traders have priced in one 25-basis-point hike in 2026, with odds of a September move continuing to fall on the in-line core reading. A second Q2 GDP estimate is also due later today.
Nvidia (NVDA) reports fiscal Q2 2027 results after the close — the season's defining moment. Analysts expect revenue of approximately $85 billion and EPS near $2.10, both records. Beyond the headline numbers, markets will focus on Jensen Huang's commentary on the Rubin next-generation chip architecture, any update on China business following US export restriction uncertainty, and whether demand signals from hyperscaler customers — who have collectively committed over $500 billion in 2026 AI capex — are translating into actual order acceleration. CrowdStrike (CRWD), Salesforce (CRM), Okta (OKTA), and Synopsys (SNPS) also report today. Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF) posted a guidance raise that lifted shares 32% in early trading.
Meta Platforms (META) rose in premarket after agreeing to settle a social media addiction lawsuit brought by 29 US states for approximately $16.7 billion — the largest tech consumer protection settlement in history — covering allegations that Meta developed products to hook young users, misled consumers about safety, and improperly collected personal data. The settlement removes a significant legal overhang for Meta even as it continues to face regulatory scrutiny in Europe and Australia. SpaceX (SPCX) edged higher to $138 in premarket after announcing plans for a $100 billion launch facility in Vermilion Parish, Louisiana, at a former ExxonMobil property that will serve as the main launch site for Starship and is expected to support thousands of annual launches.
Iran confirmed it has restarted talks with Oman to manage the Strait of Hormuz — a significant diplomatic development that traders shrugged off Iran's latest economic sanctions package from Secretary Bessent, viewing diplomatic channel activity as more constructive for oil supply than military pressure. Brent crude fell 1.12% to $86.65 a barrel and WTI continued its retreat from last week's highs, with both benchmarks now more than 10% below their recent wartime peaks as the Hormuz diplomatic track re-opened. Gold fell 0.45% to $4,673.60 an ounce in early trading. The 10-year Treasury yield held at 4.64% — below last week's near-20-month high — and the dollar was modestly softer against most G10 currencies. Jackson Hole kicks off Thursday, with Chair Kevin Warsh's keynote set for Friday alongside the July PCE release — though the PCE data landed today ahead of schedule.
Japan's Nikkei 225 fell 0.55% at Wednesday's open after the Topix was marginally lower in early trading, with chip equipment names Tokyo Electron and Advantest under modest pressure ahead of Nvidia's results. The Nikkei had closed Tuesday at 65,856.43, up 0.5% from Monday's 488-point decline. South Korea's KOSPI dropped 2.37% at Tuesday's open and the Kosdaq declined 1.23%, though both recovered through the session to close well off their lows — the KOSPI ended Tuesday at 6,742.74, up 0.68%, despite the intraday weakness driven by Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix giving back some of their recent gains ahead of Nvidia's verdict on AI chip demand. Australia's S&P/ASX 200 closed Tuesday at 9,164.60, up 0.68%, with the index holding near its all-time high as the oil decline and yield relief supported the interest-rate-sensitive sectors. Hong Kong's Hang Seng was flat in Tuesday's final hour of trade and mainland China's CSI 300 closed 0.24% lower at 4,552.03, with Chinese markets cautious on the combined weight of the US-Canada tariff escalation and the still-unresolved Hormuz situation.

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