Trade Secrets: Dailies 08.28.2026

US Stocks open split to close out the week as Wall Street holds its breath for Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's 10:00 a.m. ET Jackson Hole keynote — his first as chair and the most anticipated Fed speech since Warsh took over in June — with Marvell Technology surging 13% on AI custom chip demand, PayPal jumping 12% on a takeover update, and the 10-year Treasury yield holding near 4.67% as markets price just a 33.7% probability of a September rate hike.

S&P 500 futures hovered just under the flatline and edged up 0.1% by 8:31 a.m. ET, while Dow Jones Industrial Average futures nudged 0.2% higher and Nasdaq-100 futures slipped 0.2–0.3%, reflecting the same tech-versus-cyclical split that has defined the week. At the open the Dow picked up 0.1%, the S&P 500 edged lower, and the Nasdaq dipped 0.1% after Thursday's strong Nvidia-led rally in which the Nasdaq surged more than 1.5% and the S&P 500 gained 0.65% to close at approximately 7,750. For the week, the S&P 500 is on pace for a gain of roughly 1%, reversing the prior week's losses, and the Nasdaq is tracking its best week since early August on the back of Nvidia's blowout.
Marvell Technology (MRVL) surged 13% in premarket — its best single-session gain since the Nvidia-endorsed "next trillion-dollar company" call at Computex in June — after reporting Q2 results that beat expectations across the board and raising full-year AI revenue guidance, with CEO Matt Murphy saying custom AI chip demand from hyperscalers "is accelerating beyond our original expectations." PayPal (PYPL) jumped 12% after Reuters reported the proposed Stripe and Advent International acquisition is back in active discussion, with both parties having re-engaged following a brief pause in negotiations. Iron company Iris Energy (IREN) rose sharply after announcing a significant AI compute infrastructure expansion. Affirm Holdings (AFRM) gained after reporting strong Q4 results and raising fiscal 2027 guidance on buy-now-pay-later volume growth.
The week's most important unresolved question now lands at 10:00 a.m. ET: Warsh's Jackson Hole keynote. JPMorgan, Apollo, and Morgan Stanley's Fed watchers believe Warsh will reassure markets that controlling inflation remains the Fed's key priority — but markets have priced almost no probability that Warsh will provide direct guidance on either the September decision or his stance on the Treasury's bond-market buyback intervention. Sevens Report Research founder Tom Essaye warned the speech "could create a solid pullback" if Warsh communicates little on his rate stance, noting "we don't know what's going on for the first time in well over a decade." Warsh has made clear he intends to provide fewer policy clues than his predecessors — making Friday's language the most closely parsed Fed communication of the year. The 10-year yield held at 4.67% and the 2-year at 4.23% heading into the speech.
Thursday's full session delivered broad-based gains driven by Nvidia's 15th straight earnings beat. The S&P 500 closed 0.65% higher, the Nasdaq surged more than 1.5%, and the Dow Jones rose modestly as Salesforce jumped 10.4%, CrowdStrike gained 9%, and Okta soared 17.4%. Dollar General (DG) fell sharply despite beating estimates as management issued cautious same-store sales commentary, while Best Buy (BBY) slid after reporting weaker-than-expected comparable sales and flagging continued consumer electronics demand softness. Ulta Beauty (ULTA) missed estimates and lowered full-year guidance. Workday (WDAY) and Autodesk (ADSK) both beat and raised. Burlington Stores beat significantly.
Brent crude futures changed hands near $88 a barrel heading into Friday's open — holding above the week's lows but well below last week's $92-plus peak — as Iran-Oman Hormuz talks remained in progress and the market continued to price a diplomacy-over-military-action scenario as the most likely near-term path. Gold was little changed ahead of the Warsh speech, holding near $4,650 an ounce after surging more than 5% in August. Bitcoin held near $64,500. The dollar showed little movement before the 10 a.m. keynote, with currency traders unwilling to make directional bets until Warsh's language on inflation and rate policy became clear.
Japan's Nikkei 225 added 0.41% on Friday, closing near 66,525, supported by the Nvidia-led AI rebound filtering through to Japanese chip equipment and semiconductor-related names. The Topix also edged higher. Australia's S&P/ASX 200 gained 0.6%, extending its recovery from last week's pullback from record highs, with energy and materials names providing support as oil held near $88. South Korea's KOSPI fell 1.79%, giving back a portion of Thursday's 1.5% gain as the Bank of Korea's 25-basis-point rate hike to 3.0% weighed on domestic financial and property-sensitive stocks — the tightening cycle adding another headwind for an index that has already suffered an extraordinary 25% peak-to-trough drawdown in July. China's CSI 300 dropped 0.46% and the Shanghai Composite was modestly lower as Alibaba's $10.2 billion discounted share placement — the proceeds earmarked entirely for AI investment — weighed on sentiment even as the underlying AI demand narrative from Nvidia strengthened. Hong Kong's Hang Seng was little changed. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan posted a modest weekly gain, its second in three weeks, as the Nvidia result provided the AI trade's most important fundamental validation of the summer.

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