Trade Secrets: Dailies 09.10.2026

US Stocks open mixed on pins and needles as August PPI lands hotter than expected — headline rising 0.4% month-on-month and 5.3% year-on-year, both above consensus — cementing the case for a September 16 Fed rate hike and pushing the 10-year Treasury yield above 4.85% to a fresh three-year high, with Brent crude above $102 and tomorrow's August CPI now the last data point standing between the market and the most consequential Fed decision since 2023.

Nasdaq futures edged lower ahead of the inflation reports while the Dow partially rebounded, leaving S&P 500 futures little changed as of the premarket session. Wednesday marked a third straight session of declines as another rise in oil prices kept a lid on Wall Street, with Brent crude pushing through the $100 per barrel mark and market participants discounting the heightened risk that military activity in the region will imperil energy assets and that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz will extend even further into the future. The 10-year yield climbed further to three-year highs above 4.85% ahead of Thursday's open.
August PPI headline month-on-month came in at an estimated +0.4% versus a prior 0.0%, with year-on-year rising to +5.3% from the prior +4.7%. Core PPI excluding food and energy rose +0.3% month-on-month versus the prior +0.2%, with the annual rate climbing to +4.6% from +4.2%. The hotter-than-expected wholesale inflation reading removes any remaining ambiguity about the Fed's September 16 decision — CME FedWatch moved the probability of a 25-basis-point hike to above 70%, the highest of the cycle. Capital.com's Kyle Rodda said the PPI data represents "the make-or-break factor" for the Fed, with Friday's August CPI now the final data point before the blackout period begins and markets are left to position into the meeting.
Oracle (ORCL), Adobe (ADBE), and Macy's (M) are scheduled to report earnings today. Oracle is the AI infrastructure read markets have most anticipated — analysts are watching whether its $130 billion contracted backlog is converting into revenue at the pace hyperscaler capex commitments imply, and any acceleration in OCI cloud growth will be read as a direct endorsement of the AI spending cycle. Adobe's Q3 results will be scrutinized for AI product monetization trends in creative software. S&P 500 futures are little changed as of 7:41 a.m. ET, with Oracle's earnings set to provide a key read on the AI trade.
Brent crude remained above $102 per barrel as US-Iran tensions stayed high, with CENTCOM confirming it destroyed five Iranian crude oil carriers Tuesday in the most direct naval exchange of the six-month conflict. Iran's IRGC separately targeted a US Navy warship twice with ballistic missiles — both attacks evaded successfully — before CENTCOM struck Iranian island facilities overnight. Trump warned Wednesday of "the most devastating attack in history" if Iran did not stand down, keeping the geopolitical oil premium firmly embedded in prices. The ECB raised rates 25 basis points Wednesday as widely expected — its second hike this year — citing persistent energy-driven inflation and warning that the Iran war's impact on European energy costs could keep inflation elevated well into 2027.
Adobe is scheduled to release its Q3 2026 earnings results after the market close alongside Oracle and Macy's. Weekly initial jobless claims also print at 8:30 a.m. ET alongside the PPI release, providing a labor market temperature check between last week's blockbuster 162,000 payrolls print and next week's FOMC decision. American Eagle Outfitters (AEO) is among the other premarket movers today. Cooper Companies fell sharply in premarket while Meta Platforms edged higher as the advertising giant's AI-targeting tools continued to drive strong engagement metrics per internal disclosures. Rackspace Technology gained after announcing an expanded AI cloud services partnership.
After recording a third straight day of declines on Wednesday, US futures are looking mixed as the Dow partially rebounds, the Nasdaq slips, and S&P futures are little changed. South Korea's KOSPI fell for a third consecutive session as Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix both declined on the surging yields and Brent topping $102 — the combination of elevated borrowing costs and energy inflation hitting Korea's memory chip sector from two directions simultaneously. Japan's Nikkei 225 was lower in early Thursday trade, with the Nikkei trading near 64,800 as chip equipment names Tokyo Electron and Advantest extended their recent losses and the yen weakened further toward 161 per dollar on the rate differential widening. Hong Kong's Hang Seng edged down and China's Shanghai Composite was little changed as mainland markets remained relatively insulated from the Hormuz oil shock. Australia's S&P/ASX 200 was modestly lower as the RBA's rate hike probability for December was repriced above 90% following the hot US PPI data, adding domestic monetary tightening risk to an index already pressured by rising global bond yields.

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