Trade Secrets: Dailies 09.11.2026

US Stocks attempt to snap a four-session losing streak as Oracle's blockbuster AI cloud quarter — $664 billion in remaining performance obligations and more than $30 billion in new AI contracts signed — lifts futures broadly ahead of this morning's August CPI at 8:30 a.m. ET, which came in at 0.4% month-on-month and 3.4% year-on-year, matching forecasts and providing just enough cover for a divided Fed to hold rates next week even as WTI topped $102 and Brent hit $107 Thursday.

Dow futures rose 232 points or 0.5%, S&P 500 futures jumped 33 points or 0.4%, and Nasdaq-100 futures advanced 120 points or 0.4% heading into Friday's open — a broad relief rally after all three major indexes closed lower for a fourth consecutive session Thursday, a losing streak not seen for the S&P 500 since early March. The 10-year Treasury yield was flat in early Friday trade at 4.9424% — holding at its highest level since October 2023 after spiking 11 basis points on Thursday — while the 30-year bond yield held steady at 5.3565% and the 2-year was also largely unchanged. Polymarket showed a meaningful lean toward a higher open before the CPI data landed.
August CPI rose 0.4% month-on-month and 3.4% year-on-year — matching economists' expectations exactly — with the monthly gain the fastest since January, driven heavily by energy costs tied to the Iran war. Core CPI excluding food and energy eased slightly to 2.4% annually from the prior reading, beating the headline somewhat and providing the key inflation relief signal markets were watching for. The matched-consensus reading leaves the Fed in its most genuinely divided position of the year — hot enough that three dissenters at the July meeting would feel vindicated in calling for a hike, but not so hot that it mechanically forces the majority's hand on September 16.
Oracle (ORCL) surged 7% in premarket — its biggest single-session gain since August 3 — after reporting fiscal Q1 2027 adjusted EPS of $1.92 versus the $1.74 estimate on revenue of $19.35 billion versus $19.14 billion expected. Cloud revenue hit $11.6 billion versus $11.44 billion estimated, with cloud infrastructure revenue of $7.4 billion and cloud applications of $4.2 billion. The company ended the quarter with $664 billion in remaining performance obligations — a measure of contracted future revenue — and signed more than $30 billion in new AI cloud contracts during the quarter. CFO Safra Catz said full-year capital spending guidance remains unchanged, providing the spending discipline signal that Alphabet's capex hike last month failed to deliver. Oracle's result directly addresses the AI-returns skepticism that had dragged the stock down more than 20% in 2026 before Thursday's results.
Adobe (ADBE) fell 2% in extended hours and premarket despite posting Q3 adjusted EPS of $6.13 versus the $6.07 consensus on strong subscription revenue, as its Q4 revenue guidance came in just short of expectations — a sell-the-news reaction after a stock that had held up relatively well through the summer's volatility. Diesel fuel hit a new record of $6.00 per gallon Friday morning — even as headline crude pulled back below $100 intraday — with high fuel input costs beginning to filter into industrial and transportation company guidance. WTI crude closed Thursday at $102.48 — up 6.7% in a single session — while Brent settled at $107.63, the highest close since May 19 for both benchmarks, on the US-Iran naval exchange that saw CENTCOM destroy five Iranian crude oil carriers and Iran fire two ballistic missiles at a US warship.
The Republican National Convention opened Tuesday in Dallas with Trump delivering the keynote address and promising a package of economic measures including new tax cuts for working-class families — pledges that added a fiscal stimulus dimension to an already inflation-sensitive backdrop. The University of Michigan's preliminary September consumer sentiment survey is due at 10:00 a.m. ET — the final major consumer health read before markets go into FOMC blackout. Federal Reserve officials are now in their pre-meeting quiet period, leaving next week's September 15–16 FOMC meeting as the undisputed event risk of the month. CME FedWatch showed the probability of a 25-basis-point hike at roughly 60–65% entering Friday, with the matched CPI print expected to reduce that modestly toward the 55% range.
South Korea's KOSPI retreated 2.8% Friday — its fifth significant decline in seven sessions — as Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix both fell sharply on the surging oil prices and multi-year high Treasury yields, extending a stretch in which the KOSPI has posted daily moves exceeding 3% in more than 40 sessions in 2026. Japan's Nikkei 225 fell 2.6% in Friday's session as WTI topping $102 and Brent hitting $107.63 amplified Japan's energy import cost exposure — the Nikkei's worst single-session decline in two weeks — with chip equipment names Tokyo Electron and Advantest leading losses alongside SoftBank Group. Hong Kong's Hang Seng slipped 1.4% and China's Shanghai Composite was little changed, with mainland markets continuing to demonstrate relative insulation from Hormuz disruption through discounted energy supply routes. European markets opened with gains Friday, with the pan-European Stoxx 600 climbing 0.31% as Oracle's AI cloud validation lifted technology sentiment and cooler-than-feared CPI reduced near-term hike expectations in the region.

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