Trade Secrets: Dailies 09.18.2026

US Stocks open broadly higher in a tech-led risk-on rally as the post-Fed rate hike relief trade extends into a second session, the BOJ's 7-2 vote to raise rates to 1.25% — its highest since 1995 — is met with a paradoxical yen weakening that boosts Wall Street by reducing carry trade unwind fears, and Warren Buffett's shock resignation as Berkshire Hathaway chairman dominates the weekend conversation — with triple witching adding volume and volatility into Friday's close.

Nasdaq-100 futures jumped 137 points or 0.46% and S&P 500 futures gained 0.3%, while Dow Jones futures shed 166 points or 0.3% — a tech-versus-cyclical split reflecting the post-Fed unwind of rate-sensitive rotation. SPY traded at $760.52 and QQQ at $714.15 in premarket, with StrongBuyAnalytics calling the setup "constructive, with futures, benchmarks, and high-beta growth all positive" and flagging $760.52–$762.04 on SPY as the key confirmation band for the open. TheStreet's James DePorre said the week's central question resolved Thursday: "The question all week was whether yields would break decisively through 5% or stabilize, and on Thursday they stabilized, which let the chips and the big-cap technology names catch a bid." Thursday's full session saw the S&P 500 jump 1.0% and the Nasdaq surge 1.3% — the best session for both indexes since early August — erasing most of the week's losses.
The Bank of Japan raised its policy rate by 25 basis points to 1.25% on Friday — the highest level since 1995 — in a 7-2 vote, with two dissenting members preferring to hold. The move marks an acceleration in the BOJ's tightening cycle, taking place three months after July's hike rather than the six-month interval the central bank had followed since March 2024. Paradoxically the yen weakened rather than strengthened after the decision — falling toward 158 per dollar — as investors focused on the two dissenting votes and Governor Kazuo Ueda's cautious guidance on the pace of additional tightening. Nomura noted the key question is whether the BOJ signals that "Abenomics has run its course" and that the yen is undervalued, with Japan's 10-year government bond yield having hit 3% for the first time in three decades earlier this week. Japanese investors hold approximately $2.5 trillion in US stocks, bonds, and other securities — making the yen's reaction critical for Wall Street positioning.
Warren Buffett announced he is stepping down as Berkshire Hathaway's chairman and will become chairman emeritus — a shock announcement that comes roughly nine months after Greg Abel, 64, took over as CEO at Berkshire's May 2025 annual meeting. Buffett's son Howard Buffett will become the new chairman while Warren remains on the board in an advisory capacity. Buffett first announced his plan to step down as CEO at the 2025 annual meeting, but the chairmanship transition was not telegraphed and caught markets by surprise. Berkshire Hathaway shares are in focus premarket as investors assess the governance transition at the world's most closely watched conglomerate.
Triple witching — the simultaneous expiration of stock options, stock index futures, and stock index options — occurs today, the third Friday of September, adding elevated volume and potential intraday volatility into the close. Options expiration activity can create sharp intraday moves as dealers rebalance hedges, with the effect typically most pronounced in the final hour of trading. Gold futures gained 0.49% to $4,421.30 an ounce and silver surged 2.34% to $67.64 — both metals reclaiming safe-haven and inflation-hedge bids as the combined Fed-BOJ tightening cycle signals that global monetary policy is in its most synchronized hawkish phase since 2007. WTI crude fell 0.88% to $101.01 per barrel as Saudi Arabia and the Houthis exchanged fresh attacks across their border Thursday — raising new concerns about wider conflict even as Hormuz shipping data showed slightly improved tanker flows.
The week ahead offers a lighter earnings and data calendar compared to the summer's extraordinary cadence. AutoZone and KB Home report Monday September 22, followed by Cintas, Paychex, and General Mills on Tuesday, with August new home sales and Darden Restaurants and Costco on Wednesday September 24. Progressive's August earnings are due today. There are no major Fed speakers as officials enter the post-meeting quiet period, leaving oil prices, Iran diplomatic developments, and next week's PCE data as the primary market drivers heading into the final week of September.
Japan's Nikkei 225 fell after the BOJ rate hike was announced Friday morning, with the index initially declining before finding footing as the yen's unexpected weakening reduced the import inflation concern that had been weighing on the market. The Topix followed a similar pattern. South Korea's KOSPI rose 0.86% on Thursday — its first meaningful gain in four sessions — with Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix both stabilizing on the yield retreat, though the Kosdaq fell 0.19% as small caps lagged. Australia's S&P/ASX 200 inched up 0.12% Thursday as falling oil and yields provided modest relief to rate-sensitive sectors. China's Shanghai Composite was little changed, holding near 3,885, with mainland markets continuing their relative insulation from the Hormuz disruption through discounted Russian and Iranian crude flows. Hong Kong's Hang Seng edged slightly higher as Chinese tech names maintained their positive momentum from Thursday's session.

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