US Stocks closed higher on Monday as Anthropic's public IPO filing revived the AI trade: the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index jumped 3.3% and the Nasdaq 100 rose 1.2% on the way to the biggest one-day gain in more than a month. Tesla surged about 6% to its best day since early July on a Barclays upgrade and merger hopes, and Brent crude whipsawed to settle near $116 after touching almost $117 Friday, its highest since 2022. The rebound recovered only about a third of Friday's losses and comes with the Fed decision Wednesday, September PCE Thursday and about a third of the S&P 500 reporting this week, so Wall Street is treating it as a technical bounce.
- The S&P 500 gained 53.09 points (0.7%) to 7,676.77, the Nasdaq Composite rose 214.04 (0.8%) to 26,169.38, the Dow added 146.42 (0.3%) to 52,361.58, and the Russell 2000 gained 0.4% to 2,786.42. This came after Friday's close, when the Dow fell 652.82 points (1.23%) to 52,215.16, the S&P 500 lost 0.52% to 7,623.68 and the Nasdaq Composite slipped 0.21% to 25,955.34. For the week ended October 23, the S&P 500 fell 0.5% and the Nasdaq 0.7%, a second straight weekly loss for both, while the Dow gained 0.4% and the Russell 2000 rose 2.0%. Monday's breadth was strong, with ten of eleven S&P sectors higher early and only communication services lagging.
- Anthropic publicly filed its S-1 with the SEC, planning to list on the Nasdaq under the ticker "ANT" and potentially begin trading as soon as November 16, at a reported valuation of up to $2 trillion. The filing shows about $16.3 billion of revenue in the first half of 2026 and a net loss of $80.7 billion, most of it from accounting charges, along with more than $4.5 billion of overseas revenue and 93 pages of risk factors. It also signals a shift toward using public markets to finance compute spending. Nvidia, Broadcom and Micron jumped on the news, CoreWeave and other neocloud names erased earlier losses, and OpenAI has reportedly pushed its own IPO into next year. (Disclosure: Anthropic makes Claude, so I've kept this to what the filing and coverage report.)
- Tesla (TSLA) rose about 6%, its best day since early July and its highest close in about three months, after Barclays upgraded it to overweight citing a possible SpaceX combination, robotaxi growth and core-business strength. The share of bearish analyst calls on Tesla has fallen to its lowest in more than 11 years. The rally follows last week's report that Tesla and SpaceX are targeting a merger announcement in the first half of 2027.
- Oil stayed volatile, with Brent jumping 6.2% last week to its highest close since mid-2022 on Houthi attacks in Saudi Arabia and the US war with Iran. It slipped 1–2% to around $110 in Asian trading Monday, then reversed to settle near $116. Brazilian markets tumbled after President Lula was re-elected. With oil elevated, the University of Michigan survey's one-year inflation expectations sat at 4.7% on Friday and 10-year Treasury yields were near 5%.
- A heavy calendar follows. Wednesday brings the Fed decision, with a hold at 3.75–4.00% expected and Chair Warsh's press conference, plus a Bank of Canada hike to 2.50% expected. Thursday brings the ECB (hold expected), US Q3 GDP and September PCE, expected at 3.7% year over year. The Bank of Japan decides Friday and is expected to hold at 1.25%. About a third of S&P 500 companies report this week, including Alphabet, Microsoft and Amazon, and investors will scan them for evidence that AI spending is turning into growth.
- Asia started the week mixed. Japan's Nikkei 225 fell 0.80% to 62,189.65 as chip and tech names were sold again, while the broader Topix rose 0.18% to 3,972.98, with the yen near 157.3 per dollar ahead of the BOJ. South Korea's KOSPI fell 1.46% to 5,469.47 and the tech-heavy Kosdaq dropped 3.26% to 727.21, both before the Anthropic-driven rally reached Asia.
- Greater China was steadier. Hong Kong's Hang Seng gained about 0.5% to roughly 23,207 and the Shanghai Composite recovered from early losses to close up 0.2% at 3,697.52, while the CSI 300 ended flat at 4,103.54 as investors watched China's Fifth Plenum meeting. Australia's S&P/ASX 200 finished roughly flat near 8,800. Across the region, markets are positioned for Wednesday's Fed decision, Thursday's ECB meeting and Friday's BOJ decision.
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