US Stocks finished mixed on Election Day: the S&P 500 rose 0.4% and the Nasdaq 0.8% as chipmakers rebounded, while the Dow fell 0.4% and most S&P 500 stocks closed lower. Apple dropped on a margin warning, but Nvidia and other AI names bounced after weeks of sharp swings. After the close, AMD jumped on strong data-center revenue, but futures turned sharply lower as early midterm returns pointed to Democratic gains and a Texas candidate pledged a data-center moratorium. Asia sold off on Korean and Taiwanese chip weakness, while Japan was closed for a holiday.
- The S&P 500 rose 27.52 points (0.36%) to 7,568.92, the Nasdaq Composite gained 207.65 (0.83%) to 25,372.01, the Dow fell 197.26 points (0.4%) to 51,786.72 and the Russell 2000 added 0.2% to 2,812.45. Fewer than 215 S&P 500 stocks finished higher. For the year, the S&P 500 is up 10.6%, the Dow 7.7%, the Nasdaq 9.2% and the Russell 2000 13.3%. The Nasdaq-100 rose 0.7% to 28,180.26 and is still in correction territory, about 10% below its recent high.
- Chips led the rebound. Nvidia rose about 2.3% after four straight losses, AMD and Broadcom gained about 3% ahead of results, and memory and chip-equipment names rallied in early trading. Apple sank after warning that rising memory-chip costs could squeeze its margins, and Intel fell about 3%. After the bell, AMD rose roughly 7–8% after beating third-quarter expectations on data-center revenue, and Super Micro and Arista also advanced on better-than-expected results.
- The midterm results are driving after-hours trading. Early returns favored Democrats, including a Senate pickup in North Carolina, and prediction markets had priced a Democratic sweep as the most likely outcome. S&P 500 futures fell about 1.1% and Nasdaq-100 futures about 2% on that and on data-center worries, with CoreWeave down 6% and SpaceX down 4% in overnight trading on Robinhood. VIX futures rose above 20. Before the vote, JPMorgan had expected only a modest market move (−0.25% to +0.5% for the S&P 500), so a larger reaction would be a surprise. Futures are volatile while results come in, so treat these as a snapshot.
- Yields and oil moved with the news flow. The 10-year Treasury yield rose to about 4.96% during the day, then slipped to near 4.90% in the evening as election results came in. The yield was 4.91% at Monday's close, with the 30-year near 5.3%. Brent crude tumbled about 8% on Monday (steeper than the 4% I reported intraday) after Iran's leadership authorized further talks with Washington, and prices stayed lower Tuesday. The dollar index fell about 0.5% to near 101.3. September job openings came in at 7.5 million, up from a revised 7.2 million.
- The week ahead matters for rates. Wednesday's Treasury refunding and Friday's October payrolls are the next big catalysts, with options pricing roughly a 1.85% S&P 500 move into Friday. A strong labor report would reinforce the case for a December rate hike, which was about 80% priced in at last week's close.
- Asia was weak outside Hong Kong and Australia. South Korea's KOSPI fell 3.59% to 5,648.79 after Samsung dropped about 5% at the open, the Kosdaq lost 4.08% to 704.39 and Taiwan's Taiex fell 3.59% to 43,307.54. China's CSI 300 slipped 0.2% to 4,008.87. Hong Kong's Hang Seng gained 0.57% to 23,525.97 and Australia's ASX 200 rose 0.34% to 8,886.8. Japan was closed for a public holiday, so the Nikkei's last close remains 63,081.86.
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