US stocks surged the day after the midterms: the Dow jumped about 3% (1,569 points) for its best day since April 2025, the S&P 500 rose 1.6% and the Nasdaq 1.4%. Democrats won both the House and Senate, President Trump said he would accept the results, and Brent crude fell about 9% as investors bet a divided Washington would limit the Iran war and fiscal risk. Chipmakers and data-center names fell on worries about a Democratic Congress and the AI build-out, while defense stocks dropped. Asia was mixed, with Japan down and Hong Kong and mainland China up.
- The S&P 500 gained 119.70 points (1.58%) to 7,688.62, the Dow rose 1,569.40 points (3.03%) to 53,356.12, the Nasdaq Composite added 364.50 (1.44%) to 25,736.51 and the Russell 2000 gained 1.6% to 2,856.95. For the year, the S&P 500 is up 12.3%, the Dow 11%, the Nasdaq 10.7% and the Russell 2000 15.1%. The Dow moved back above 53,000 for the first time since September and had its biggest post-midterm one-day gain since 1982. Futures dipped Tuesday night, then recovered overnight as the result became clear.
- Oil drove the rally. US crude and Brent each fell more than 8% after Vice President JD Vance said the Iran war cost Republicans races, with Brent at about $94.60 and WTI near $88, the lowest in weeks and WTI down about 15% on the week. Energy was the weakest S&P 500 sector (down about 4.8%), while consumer discretionary led (up about 4%). Hospital owners and dollar-store chains serving lower-income Americans led the broad rally.
- Rates and havens: the 10-year Treasury yield eased to about 4.90% (from 4.95%) as crude and inflation fears fell, and gold rose about 1.5% to near $4,135. The Cboe Volatility Index was around 16.8, down from above 20 in Tuesday-night futures.
- The AI trade and Trump-linked names lagged. Nvidia fell 3.2% to about $200, Micron 7%, Marvell 7.1% and SanDisk 7.9%. AMD edged up about 1% after its data-center revenue rose roughly 97% to about $8.5 billion. Trump Media fell more than 7% overnight, Tesla slid 3.3% and SpaceX 3.8%. Defense stocks dropped on hopes of a pullback from the war: Lockheed Martin fell 6.9%, Northrop Grumman 4.5% and General Dynamics 2.6%.
- Policy and data: Trump told CNBC he can work with Democrats on "many more things" than people expect. The Bank of England raised rates and warned of persistent inflation, and US unit labor costs fell 0.7%. Friday's October payrolls report is the next big catalyst for Fed rate-hike odds, with options pricing a roughly 1.85% S&P 500 move into the report.
- In Asia, Japan's Nikkei 225 closed down 1.42% at 62,188.63 after plunging more than 4% earlier to its lowest since May, and the Topix fell 0.89% to 3,895.38. Mainland China's CSI 300 gained 2.31% to 4,101.34 and Hong Kong's Hang Seng rose about 1.4% late in the session. South Korea's KOSPI swung from a roughly 3% gain at the open to a loss of more than 3% midday, around 5,467, as chip stocks reversed. I couldn't confirm its final close.
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