Trade Secrets

Trade Secrets: WTF Dailies 11.19.2025

US futures are ticking higher as the market holds its breath for Nvidia’s earnings report after the bell; shares rebounded ~3% pre-market despite lingering fears of an "AI valuation bubble.

Sage Kakkat

19 Nov 2025 — 4 min read

US Tech Standoff: US futures are ticking higher as the market holds its breath for Nvidia’s earnings report after the bell; shares rebounded ~3% pre-market despite lingering fears of an "AI valuation bubble."
Fed Minutes: Attention is split between tech earnings and the Federal Reserve minutes due this afternoon, with traders paring back December rate-cut odds to just ~40%.
Retail Earnings: Target (TGT) is in the spotlight today after Home Depot (HD) missed expectations yesterday, creating a "tale of two consumers" narrative for the holiday season.
Japan Bond Rout: The Nikkei 225 fell as Japanese Government Bond yields surged to multi-decade highs (30-year yield +1.8%) on fears of PM Sanae Takaichi’s aggressive fiscal spending plans.
China-Japan Tensions: A deepening diplomatic rift saw China reportedly blocking new Japanese film releases (hurting stocks like Toei), while Chinese traders bought up local "seafood" stocks as a counter-play to the ongoing trade dispute.
Korean Chip Selloff: South Korea was the region's worst performer, with heavy foreign selling in Samsung and SK Hynix as investors reduced risk exposure ahead of the Nvidia report.
Chinese Tech Weakness: Xiaomi fell ~5% in Hong Kong due to warnings about rising memory chip costs, while Baidu dropped after posting its largest-ever revenue decline.
India Rally: Defying the Asian slump, India’s Nifty 50 and Sensex rose, driven by a defensive rotation into IT majors like Infosys and a record-breaking run in the banking sector.
Australian Banks: The ASX 200 hit 5-month lows, anchored by a selloff in major banks like Commonwealth Bank and data suggesting no rate cuts are coming in December.
European Defense Crash: A unique selloff hit European defense contractors (Rheinmetall, BAE Systems) which fell 4-7% on rumors of a renewed diplomatic push to end the Russia-Ukraine war.
Saudi Strategic Shift: While the Saudi index (TASI) dipped, miner Ma'aden signed a major JV with US-based MP Materials for rare-earth refining, signaling a move to bypass Chinese supply chains.

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