Trade Secrets

WTF Dailies September 16, 2025

US stock futures slipped as President Trump's pick for Fed governor headed for Senate confirmation, following another record-setting day on Wall Street.

Sage Kakkat

15 Sep 2025 — 6 min read

US stock futures slipped as President Trump's pick for Fed governor headed for Senate confirmation, following another record-setting day on Wall Street.
The Senate is expected to vote to officially confirm Stephen Miran as Trump's nominee to the Federal Reserve Board on Monday night, a day before the central bank's policy meeting kicks off Tuesday. The move would put Miran in place just in time to cast a crucial vote on the direction of interest rates.
Though Miran has said he would act independently if confirmed, his intention to take a leave of absence — but not resign — from his current role as a White House advisor has raised questions about the future of Fed independence, especially as Trump pursues firing Fed governor Lisa Cook.
Most Asian stock markets extended their rally on Tuesday, with shares in Japan and South Korea hitting fresh record highs, buoyed by a potential U.S. interest rate cut this week.
Bucking the regional trend, Chinese equities fell from decade highs amid caution over U.S.-China talks over chip exports in Madrid.
Regional gains followed record finishes for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq overnight. U.S. stock index futures traded largely unchanged in early Asia hours on Tuesday.
The Nikkei 225 rose as much as 0.6% to a new record high of 45,055.38 points, lifted by technology and industrial stocks. The benchmark index jumped 4% last week.
Japan’s broader TOPIX index also gained 0.5% to reach a fresh record level of 3,177.20 points.
South Korea’s KOSPI surged 1.3% to 3,452.50 points, also a new peak, as heavyweight chipmakers Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix advanced sharply.
Markets are largely pricing in a 25 basis point cut from the Fed this week, with equities responding positively to the prospect of easier financial conditions.
Elsewhere, Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 gained 0.2%, while Singapore’s Straits Times Index traded flat.
India’s Nifty 50 also inched 0.2% higher at open. India is facing mounting pressure from higher U.S. tariffs, which have hurt exports of goods like textiles and jewellery.
Representatives from the two countries will hold trade talks in New Delhi on Tuesday in a bid to ease tensions.
Sentiment was also supported by progress in U.S.–China trade talks in Madrid. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Washington and Beijing had reached a framework deal on TikTok’s U.S. ownership.
He added that China dropped demands for tariff concessions, while the U.S. secured commitments to address national security concerns.
President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping are expected to speak later this week to finalize details.
Still, caution crept in after Chinese regulators said a preliminary probe found Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) had violated anti-monopoly rules, straining the fragile trade relationship.
Investors also digested the U.S. citing necessary national security concerns for restrictions on semiconductor exports to China.
China’s top trade negotiator Li Chenggang said that the concerns amounted to "unilateral bullying."
Chinese equities eased after strong recent gains. The blue chip Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 slipped 0.4% from near three-year highs, while the Shanghai Composite edged 0.2% lower, drifting away from decade highs.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index traded largely flat.

Market Close

U.S. equity markets nudged lower in what was a quiet session ahead of tomorrow's eagerly anticipated Fed meeting. The S&P 500 index was down 0.1% on the day, but remains close to its record highs, while the Nasdaq also closed lower, breaking a run of nine consecutive increases in this technology-focused index. This follows a generally soft tone in international equity markets, with Canadian, European and Asian stock indexes lower, although the Nikkei bucked this negative trend.
There was a small rally in U.S government bonds, helped by a well-received auction for 20-year U.S. Treasuries, which helped push the 10-year yield down to 4.03% .
The U.S. dollar was softer against a trade-weighted basket of international currencies, and in commodity markets, WTI oil moved higher against the backdrop of further Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian refineries and threats of heightened sanctions on Russian oil.
U.S. household consumption has slowed in 2025, with data through the first half of the year showing a sluggish 1% annualized gain in consumption, down from around 3% in 2024. However, there have been some more encouraging signs of resilience over the summer, with this morning's retail-sales report showing a third consecutive gain in spending.
Headline sales were up 0.6% month-on-month (m/m), with the closely followed control group that strips out some volatile components even better at 0.7% m/m, and July readings were revised higher too. These data suggest that despite weakening sentiment and slower employment/income growth, the household sector appears to remain solid for now, which will likely be a relief for the Federal Reserve Bank. However, the risk remains that a more pronounced pass-through of higher tariffs into consumer prices could present a deeper squeeze on real incomes, and potentially weigh on consumer spending.
The Fed meeting remains the big event of the week, with investors expecting the central bank to cut rates for the first time this year. There has been some speculation that a 50 basis point (0.50%) cut might be in the cards, and it is not impossible that one or more FOMC members vote for such a move. Back in June the median FOMC member forecast pointed to two 25 basis point cuts in 2025 and just one move in 2026, and the market is now pricing six cuts of this magnitude by the end of next year.

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