What in the World!

For much of the twentieth century, economic policy was framed around the pursuit of stability. Governments and central banks aimed to smooth business cycles, reduce unemployment, and maintain predictable price levels.

The Goldilocks macro environment that opened 2026 ended on 28 February. US-Israel strikes on Iran triggered the largest oil supply disruption on record. Growth forecasts cut. Inflation forecasts raised. The stagflation risk is back — with less ammunition to fight it.

Energy is the precondition for all economic activity. Every unit of production, every act of transportation, every computational process, and every financial transaction ultimately depends on the transformation of energy.

The UAE in 2026 is the product of perhaps the most deliberate and capital-intensive economic transformation ever executed by a small nation-state.

The Philippines enters 2026 as one of Southeast Asia's most structurally compelling growth stories — driven not by export manufacturing like Korea or Thailand, but by a unique combination of domestic consumption, a massive remittance inflow (~9% of GDP)

Volatility is typically described as a symptom of disorder. Markets rise and fall unpredictably, currencies swing, credit spreads widen, and policymakers appear to scramble in response. In this view, volatility is treated as an undesirable outcome.

Iran enters 2026 as one of the most paradoxical economies in the world — possessing the 4th largest oil reserves globally and significant industrial capacity, yet operating under a comprehensive sanctions regime that has severed it from the global financial system

Every generation eventually reaches a moment when the economic system appears broken. Inequality widens, opportunity feels constrained, markets behave in ways that defy intuition, and institutions appear increasingly detached from the lived experiences of the public.

By the end of February 2026, the global economy remains resilient but increasingly uneven, with growth concentrated in a small number of regions and sectors while others continue to struggle with structural constraints.

South Korea's economy is export-intensive and capital-heavy — not a consumption-led recovery story. With exports comprising ~40–45% of GDP and manufacturing at ~27–30%, the economy behaves like a levered global manufacturing ETF.